Padres Still Have One Major Move to Make Before Opening Day

The San Diego Padres are currently projected to go 79-83 in the 2026 season, per FanGraphs.

This projection jumps off the page, as the Padres are coming off back-to-back 90-win seasons and haven't had a losing record since 2021. The lineup is one of the best in baseball, and the bullpen is arguably the best in baseball. So what could be the reason for such a pessimistic projection?

The answer has to be the starting rotation, which has the potential to be one of the worst in the entire league.

Nick Pivetta is the most "sure thing" heading into the year, but he's coming off a career-best season in which he was the beneficiary of some favorable luck and is already dealing with arm fatigue that has slowed his progression this spring.

Next on the list is Michael King, who missed nearly four months last season with multiple injuries and has struggled mightily this spring, with an 8.31 ERA across 8.2 innings.

The No. 3 starter is expected to be Joe Musgrove, who missed the entire 2025 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Musgrove has pitched just once this spring — in a March 4 exhibition against Great Britain — and has now been delayed as he deals with what has been described as general soreness in his return from the surgery. At this point, it's hard to imagine Musgrove being ready for Opening Day.

The No. 4 starter is Randy Vásquez, who at this point may actually be the most "sure thing" for San Diego. And in the No. 5 spot is a competition between veteran castoffs, likely down to Germán Márquez, Walker Buehler and Marco Gonzales, with JP Sears and Triston McKenzie on the outside looking in.

With all that being said, it's clear the Padres need help in the rotation. Matt Waldron should be back sometime in April, while Griffin Canning could be back in May or June. However, neither present a "sure thing" either, which is why San Diego needs to make one more move to solidify the rotation ahead of the season.

Padres need to sign Lucas Giolito in free agency

The Padres need to sign right-handed pitcher Lucas Giolito, who remains a free agent with less than two weeks to go until Opening Day.

Giolito is coming off a 2025 season with the Boston Red Sox in which he made 26 starts, going 10-4 with a 3.41 ERA. There's no reason for Giolito to still be available, and San Diego needs to pounce on the opportunity to shore up their rotation without needing to trade any players.

Giolito is by far the best free agent available, and likely is yet to receive a contract offer he deemed reasonable. With every passing day, though, Giolito's price likely drops, as he'll miss more time in the regular season while he gets built up.

At this point, if Giolito were to sign today, he would likely be ready to pitch sometime in April. With all the question marks surrounding the San Diego rotation, it's a no-brainer to bring in Giolito, a former All-Star who can take down innings and keep the team competitive in a loaded National League West division.

Spotrac has Giolito's market value at three years and $61 million. At this point, it's difficult to imagine him signing anything greater than a one-year deal, likely with incentives to reach up to $18 million or so.

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