Phillies vs. Braves: Four Bold Predictions for NL Wild-Card Series

The Phillies and Braves will square off in the NL wild-card series. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Braves and Phillies will square off in the National League wild-card series, starting on Tuesday. Atlanta won the NL East, ending the season six games ahead of Philadelphia, which clinched its postseason berth on the final day of the regular season after fending off the surging Diamondbacks in the wild-card race.

The two rival sides have plenty of familiarity with one another, and now they’ll meet in the opening round of this year’s postseason in a best-of-three series, with all three games set to be played at the Braves’ Truist Park.

During the regular season, the two teams met 13 times. Atlanta held the edge in the series, going 9–4 against the Phillies, including 4–2 at its home stadium.

Let’s make some bold predictions for the wild-card series.

Chris Sale will pitch a scoreless outing in Game 1

Chris Sale will be on the mound for the Braves in Game 1 of the NL wild-card series. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Chris Sale will toe the rubber in Game 1 for the Braves, and he’ll see the Phillies lineup for the fifth time this year. Sale made four starts against Philadelphia during the regular season, and he held them in check every time. The 37-year-old went 3–0 in starts against the Phils, registering a 2.08 ERA with 29 strikeouts and six walks in 26 innings. Sale doesn’t have the best postseason track record, but he’ll be pitching at home, where he owns a 1.66 ERA across 14 starts this season. Philadelphia’s offense has been ice cold of late, recording the second-lowest OPS (.660) in the league in September. The lineup has also struggled on the road this season, logging a .664 OPS away from Citizens Bank Park, which is also second-worst in MLB. That all bodes well for Sale, who has seen more of the Phillies than any other team this year.

Ronald Acuña Jr. will have four extra-base hits in the series

Ronald Acuña Jr. hasn’t looked like his usual self for most of this year, but he got hot at the plate in September, in what was his best month of the regular season. Acuña hit seven home runs and had 19 RBIs in 22 games in September, logging a .950 OPS in that span. He also crushed the Phillies this year, recording four homers and 10 RBIs across 13 games, good for an OPS of 1.147. Philadelphia won’t have Jesus Luzardo available to eat up innings in the postseason, though he’s set to serve as an opener for Game 1, and Zack Wheeler likely won’t pitch many innings after starting in the final game of the regular season, which means guys like Andrew Painter and Aaron Nola, in addition to Cristopher Sánchez, will be called upon to handle some high-stakes innings. I’m expecting Acuña to be dialed in at the plate, particularly in Game 1, and record at least four extra-base hits throughout the series.

Kyle Schwarber will hit a pair of home runs in Game 2

Kyle Schwarber hit 45 home runs during the regular season | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Schwarber is one of the all-time great postseason home run hitters, currently sitting third in league history with 23 homers. He’s four home runs behind Jose Altuve and six behind Manny Ramirez on the all-time leaderboard, and while I’m not expecting him to surpass either player, I do think he has the opportunity to add to his tally. Despite slumping a bit in September, much like the rest of the Philadelphia offense, Schwarber will have a favorable matchup in Game 2 when Atlanta is expected to deploy Tyler Mahle as its starter. Historically, Schwarber has excelled against Mahle, logging a .909 OPS with two home runs and four RBIs in 25 at-bats against the right-hander. Thirty of Schwarber’s 45 home runs came against righties this season, so he’ll have a real shot to inflict some damage in Game 2, and I think he’ll do exactly that with a pair of home runs.

Braves will win the series in two games

The Braves are going to make quick work of the Phillies in the wild-card series, and will advance to the NLDS to take on the Dodgers without needing a third game. Atlanta has played well at Truist Park, ending the year as one of five teams across the league to win 50-plus games at home. With Sale on the mound in Game 1, the Braves will quickly put the Phillies in desperation mode. Sánchez will be on the mound in Game 2, but he’s looked beatable of late, having surrendered two or more runs in each of his last five starts, including a three-run outing against the Braves at the start of September. Atlanta will wrap this one up on Wednesday, giving themselves a bit of breathing room before heading to Los Angeles for the NLDS.

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