Just How Aggressive Will Philadelphia Phillies Be at Trade Deadline?

The Philadelphia Phillies surged into contention last summer and rode that wave to the World Series.

But how aggressive should the Phillies be at the trade deadline? Well, that’s hard to figure right now, according to ESPN.

ESPN’s rankings tiered the Phillies as a team that’s ‘idling,’ as in they’re not sure if they’re going to be buyers or sellers.

The site ranked every team based on what their level of aggressiveness, should be using a variety of factors and 10,000 simulations to determine probable win totals and potential for a playoff berth.

The Phillies’ projected win total has dropped by just one game, from 80.1 to 79.5. But their odds of reaching the playoffs are just 27 percent.

So it doesn’t look great for the Phillies right now. Then again, it didn’t look that great at this time last season. With more than a month left before the trade deadline, there’s plenty of time for the Phillies to figure that out and for general manager Dave Dombrowski to figure what kind of deal would fit the team best, per ESPN:

In terms of record and games behind, the sub-.500 Phillies were in almost the exact same position at this time last season. But there is a key difference: The Phillies' run differential at this point in 2022 was as far into the positive as this year's differential is into the negative. Before we can ponder another busy Dombrowski deadline, the Phillies need to start playing a whole lot better.

There’s good news on that front. While the Phillies entered Saturday’s action eight games back of NL East-leading Atlanta, they were just 2.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot, in spite of being one game under .500.

The rankings took into account factors like odds to reach the postseason, remaining schedule and strength of division. They also considered statistical data like run differential, roster strength, remaining schedule and used that data in 10,000 simulations to project win totals and postseason odds.

If the Phillies can turn it around like last year, the Phillies could pivot from sellers to buyers come July.

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