Phillies Need Aaron Nola To Figure Out Major Issues Against Reds

Arguably, the biggest strength of the Philadelphia Phillies right now is their starting pitching rotation.

Since Zack Wheeler returned to take the spot of Taijuan Walker, the team’s pitching performance has taken off. He and Cristopher Sanchez are as good a one-two punch as there is in the MLB.

Jesus Luzardo has real upside as the No. 3 behind them. Andrew Painter, after a rough start to his rookie campaign, is starting to find his footing and perform at a higher level. All that is missing from this group is Aaron Nola.

The veteran righty has been able to stay healthy thus far in 2026, a welcome change from 2025. But, his production has been incredibly underwhelming through his first nine starts of the campaign, compiling a 2-3 record with a 5.91 ERA, 4.84 FIP and 1.555 WHIP. His ERA+ is currently a 73, which would tie his career-worst mark, set last year.

Aaron Nola struggling mightily with his fastball

Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola (27) pitches against the Atlanta Braves, — Apr 26, 2026; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola (27) pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning at Truist Park. | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

When looking at his statistics, there are two troubling numbers that stick out. His 1.8 HR/9 is the worst of his career, and his 3.5 BB/9 is the second worst, with a 3.6 in 2019 being the only year he was worse.

What is the culprit for those numbers being so poor? A four-seam fastball that he cannot locate, which is putting him in disadvantageous positions, leading to some startingly poor numbers.

As shared by Matt Gelb of The Athletic (subscription required), Nola is entering his start against the Cincinnati Reds on May 20 with one of the least effective fastballs in the MLB. He is experiencing some real struggles locating his pitches, and opposing hitters are taking full advantage.

42.5% of his pitches are in the strike zone this season, which is by far the lowest mark of his career and a stark dropoff from the 50% he had in 2025. Even on the rare occasions he has gotten ahead of batters, when he throws his fastball, they tee off on it.

Thus far in 2026, hitters are 7-for-16 when facing Nola’s fastball when behind in the count with three doubles and a home run. When they are ahead in the count, they have a slash line of .400/.556/1.000 when facing his four-seamer or sinker.

✅ Take the lead
✅ Double it pic.twitter.com/uzty2qqNrn
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) May 15, 2026

If they get ahead in the count 1-0, they are producing an OPS of .970. Essentially, if Nola doesn’t get strike one on the first pitch of the at-bat, opponents turn into Aaron Judge; the New York Yankees star has an OPS of .975 thus far in 2026.

The crux of his issue is once again the fastball. Not being able to locate a pitch doesn’t always necessarily mean racking up a pitch count because so many balls are being thrown. It could also mean missing in the zone, which he is doing too frequently.

20 of Nola’s four-seam fastballs have been down the middle. On those pitches, opponents are 8-for-11 with two doubles, a triple and three home runs. In his last start against the Pittsburgh Pirates, two middle-middle fastballs were deposited over the fence.

It's too bad he is struggling so much to get ahead in the count because his curveball is on point. Opponents have produced a measly .172 batting average and .279 slugging percentage against it in 2026, but he is not getting into counts where he can take advantage of its success with any regularity.

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