Phillies Playoff and Title Odds Unsurprisingly Move Wrong Way

The Philadelphia Phillies are going to be in a dogfight to make the playoffs.

Jul 31, 2026; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Philadelphia Phillies interim manager Don Mattingly looks on during the third inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Philadelphia Phillies dug themselves into a deep hole to begin the season, starting 9-19 and firing manager Rob Thomson.

Since that point, under interim manager Don Mattingly, the team has performed at a much higher level. There have been some ups and downs, but they wasted no time getting back into the playoff mix in the National League.

This year’s Phillies squad became the first to ever be 10 games under .500 in April and then 10 games over .500 before the end of June in MLB history. However, since that point, they have been playing at just below a .500 level, which has negatively impacted their odds of not only winning the World Series, but making the playoffs.

In a recent stock watch put together by Bradford Doolittle of ESPN, Philadelphia is heading in the wrong direction in all categories. They are now in ninth place in projected wins, with 85.6, dropping from seventh in the previous edition, when they were projected for 87.7.

Phillies odds of making playoffs are decreasing

Aug 5, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper (3) crouches on the infield after being injured on a slide into second base during the tenth inning against the Washington Nationals at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The last edition gave them a 72.1% chance of making the playoffs with a 2.1% chance of winning the championship. While their championship odds have dropped only 0.3% to 1.8%, their playoff odds took a hit, falling to 65.0%.

What contributed to such a decrease, with the Arizona Diamondbacks and Boston Red Sox both jumping them in the predicted win column? Both of those teams have been performing at a higher level, with the Red Sox being historically dominant over the last few weeks.

However, the biggest reason for the Phillies' drop has been their own level of play. Coming out of the All-Star break, they didn’t play up to their capabilities, with all the positive momentum built heading into the break disappearing.

Philadelphia lost series to the New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees and Miami Marlins, going 3-9. They started the second half 3-10, losing the opener to the Baltimore Orioles before starting to find their way.

Powder blue Ws always hit a little different#RingTheBell pic.twitter.com/J3tSvNk2KI

— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) August 7, 2026

Since that loss to the Orioles on July 31, the team has started to show some life against non-playoff teams, winning the last two games against Baltimore before taking three out of four from the Washington Nationals.

Their next seven series are against teams who aren’t currently in the playoff field, either. This is the perfect opportunity to start racking up some victories and solidifying their spot in the National League Wild Card standings.

Entering play on Aug. 7, the Phillies hold the second spot, one game ahead of the Diamondbacks. Six teams are within 5.5 games of the final Wild Card spot, as this is a race that will be going down to the wire.

Catching the Chicago Cubs, who are five games ahead, will be a challenge, but that isn’t an insurmountable deficit to overcome. Putting heat on the Atlanta Braves, who are now 8.5 games ahead, will be difficult, but they have already cut that lead down to as little as 2.5 games and could certainly do it again.

Sign up for our free newsletter to receive the latest news and updates!