Mets vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, Aug. 6

The Cleveland Guardians are clinging to the final wild card spot in the American League, but they haven’t done themselves any favors so far this week, losing back-to-back games at home to the New York Mets.

New York is way under .500 and in last place in the NL East, but it has a chance to play spoiler on Thursday by completing the sweep. Oddsmakers have set New York as a slight underdog in this game, but it has played some better baseball as of late, winning six of its last 10 games.

Meanwhile, the Guardians are 3-7 in their last 10 and are now three games out of first place in the AL Central.

Cleveland will turn to trade-deadline acquisition Foster Griffin (3.06 ERA) for his first start with the franchise after he earned an All-Star nod as a member of the Washington Nationals. Griffin, 31, was tagged for eight hits and five runs in his lone start against the Mets this season.

New York has ace Nolan McLean on the mound for this series finale, and he’s been terrific over his last 10 starts, posting a 2.28 ERA while leading New York to a 6-4 record.

Can the Mets pull off yet another upset on Thursday afternoon?

Let’s check out the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this series finale.

Mets vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Mets -1.5 (+175)
Guardians +1.5 (-214)

Moneyline

Mets: +107
Guardians: -115

Total

7.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Mets vs. Guardians Probable Pitchers

New York: Nolan McLean (7-7, 3.29 ERA)
Cleveland: Foster Griffin (12-3, 3.06 ERA)

Mets vs. Guardians How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Aug. 6
Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Progressive Field
How to Watch (TV): ESPN Unlimited, SNY, CLEGuardians.TV
Mets record: 49-66
Guardians record: 57-58

Mets vs. Guardians Best MLB Prop Bets

Mets Best MLB Prop Bet

Nolan McLean UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-151)

McLean has been one of the few bright spots for the Mets this season, and he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in 16 of his 22 starts this season. Over his last 10 starts, McLean has a 2.28 ERA and has nine outings with two or fewer earned runs allowed.

So, I love him in this prop market against a Cleveland team that is one of the worst offenses in MLB. The Guardians rank 27th in batting average, 29th in OPS and 25th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) so far this season.

McLean’s advanced numbers back up his solid 2026 season, as he sits in the 68th percentile in expected ERA, the 75th percentile in expected BAA and the 72nd percentile in hard-hit percentage.

I expect him to shut down this Cleveland offense on Thursday afternoon.

Mets vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

I’m intrigued by the Griffin addition for Cleveland, but I do think it's worth noting that he struggled against New York earlier this season.

The Mets are well out of the playoff race in the 2026 season, but they’ve shown some fight over the last few weeks, winning over 50 percent of their games.

Meanwhile, the Guardians have a minus-21 run differential and are under .500 at home in the 2026 season despite being in the mix for a playoff spot.

Griffin has some strong numbers on the surface, but his advanced stats are a little worrisome, especially compared to McLean. The lefty ranks in just the 47th percentile in expected ERA and the 37th percentile in expected BAA.

I think there’s value in betting on New York to pull off the upset with McLean on the mound.

Pick: Mets Moneyline (+107 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $150 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.

Add us as a preferred source on Google