Phillies’ Turn to Familiar Playbook Is Unlikely to Work

The Phillies are so committed to running back this team that they’ve fired their manager at midseason again. That worked in 2022. Now they just need a repeat of everything else that went right four years ago, too.

Rob Thomson, who last was the beneficiary of that change, became on Tuesday the victim of it. Bench coach Don Mattingly—the All-Star player and accomplished two-time former manager who also happens to be the father of Philadelphia general manager Preston Mattingly—will take over. The elder Mattingly inherits a $282 million roster with a 9–19 record and scant reason for hope.

The Phillies employ the third oldest lineup in the sport (average age: 30.2) and while that’s not necessarily a problem—Nos. 1 and 2 are the Dodgers and the Yankees, who are running away with their divisions—this group is looking less experienced than simply creaky. Catcher J.T. Realmuto, 35, just hit the injured list with back tightness. Shortstop Trea Turner, 33, has a .658 OPS. Twelve of the members of the 2022 team populate the ’26 roster. Eleven are playing worse now than they did then. (The ageless Kyle Schwarber had a 131 OPS+ then and a 134 OPS+ now.) Even the comparatively young guys are dragging themselves around the field: second baseman Bryson Stott, 28, has a .541 OPS. Center fielder Justin Crawford, 22, has the 29th worst bat speed in baseball. Third baseman Alec Bohm, 29, has barreled up one ball this year.

The pitching is not much better. The rotation ERA is 5.80, worst in the majors. The Phillies just released Taijuan Walker, who had a 9.13 ERA, and ate the $10 million they still owe him. They can’t easily do the same with Aaron Nola, who has a 6.03 ERA and is still due nearly $50 million. Ace Zack Wheeler is returning from surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome. Top prospect Andrew Painter is not even striking out eight batters per nine innings. Closer Jhoan Duran is on the injured list with an oblique strain; no other relievers look inspiring.

Little of this is the fault of Thomson, who did not assemble the roster. Still, the team had grown stale, and in April, it’s hard to get fresh energy. The players loved his consistency and the autonomy he gave them, especially in contrast to his fiery predecessor, Joe Girardi, and Thomson’s teams made the playoffs all four years, including a storybook run to the 2022 World Series. But he mismanaged his bullpen in the ’23 National League championship series against the Diamondbacks, which the Phillies led two games to none and then three to two. That might have been their best chance. They fell in the National League division Series each of the past two years.

Try as they might—how many times did they recycle “Dancing on My Own”?—they never recaptured the magic of that 2022 team, which played .586 ball after Thomson took over in June. The new manager leaned more heavily on his young players, and Bohm and Stott blossomed. Realmuto might have been the best player in the league on both sides of the ball. Nola put together the best four months of his career.

None of those players seem likely to repeat those performances this year, nor does anyone seem poised to replace their production. The Phillies are committed to their aging core, and even if they weren’t, the cavalry is not coming; their only top-100 hitting prospect, shortstop Aidan Miller, is out with a back injury. But as the Mets mirror the Phillies’ free-fall with one of their own, the Phillies still have an opportunity here. If Mattingly can get a few of his hitters up to even major league average, if a starting pitcher or two can last seven innings and spare the bullpen for a day, the team could go on a run.

For four years, the Phillies have seemed wedded to 2022. For better or worse, on Tuesday, they officially moved on.

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