How Lockout Could Impact Pirates, Brandon Lowe Negotiations
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PITTSBURGH — The Pittsburgh Pirates have many needs this offseason, and re-signing Brandon Lowe is at the very top.
Lowe is now a free agent for the first time in his career, and it's in an offseason that will likely be cut short early on due to an impending lockout.
The current collective bargaining agreement (CBA) expires at midnight on Dec. 2 and unless the owners and players' union come to an agreement in the next three weeks, all transactions will stop.
Lowe has a few tough choices of not only where he plays next season, but what kind of contract he will be looking for.
How Qualifying Offer Comes into Play
The Pirates extended the qualifying offer to Lowe, $23.15 million for 2027, that would make him the highest-paid player in franchise history for one season.
Lowe has until Nov. 17 to accept, which would be just one year if he does, but would keep him as a free agent if he doesn't, with draft compensation if he chooses another club that's not the Pirates.
It's not likely that Lowe signs this qualifying offer, with only 18 of the 165 players doing so since MLB implemented it in 2012.
Lowe could still stick with the Pirates on that qualifying offer, which would pay him more than twice what he made last season, $11.5 million.
He would also get paid before the lockout, reducing the risk of not getting a deal and being left out as a free agent, especially if a new CBA doesn't come for a long time.
Lowe has one week left to accept and about three weeks to sign a new deal, so the qualifying offer could be more enticing than originally thought.
Free Agency Could Become Trickier
The owners and MLBPA are far away on signing a new CBA and it may make it tough for teams to commit long-term to players.
A proposed salary cap and floor from the owners would come into place by 2028, requiring the big spenders to spend less and the small-market teams to spend more.
This may either compel teams to really go for it in 2027, or wait patiently for the CBA to be resolved before making big moves.
Lowe could field some impressive contract offers, ranging from $15 million to $25 million AAV, and he would preferably want a longer-term deal.
It's the last chance for Lowe to really strike it big, and after the season he just had, there should be a few teams that are ready to commit to that kind of offer.
The Pirates need to fight for Lowe and put up better offers, and if they can do something with four years, it could get the job done, depending on the cash involved.
Pirates Could Try Something New With Lowe
The Pirates give out pretty standard contracts, but there is one clause that could entice Lowe if they're interested in doing it.
Opt-outs allow players to depart from multi-year contracts early, and this may appeal to Lowe, especially if he would want to try free agency again down the road.
The player option is commonly used amongst bigger market teams, and can even help smaller market teams attract players that normally wouldn't consider them.
Lowe could sign a lengthy contract with the Pirates, but if they still fail to make the postseason, he could opt out and find a new ballclub to play for the following season.
It's not likely that the Pirates would put in an opt-out, but it's time for them to be bold this offseason and make decisions they normally wouldn't to build the best team possible for 2027.
...Or Something They've Done Before
One thing the Pirates could do with Lowe's contract is spreading the money out in a way where he isn't getting paid the same amount every year.
The Pirates could backload Lowe's contract, where he makes most of the money in the final years, rather than a consistent amount each season.
Pittsburgh could sign Lowe to a four-year, $80 million contract, but pay him $10 million in 2027, $15 million in 2028, $25 million in 2029 and then $30 million in 2030.
The Pirates backloaded rookie shortstop Konnor Griffin's contract, who signed a franchise-record nine-year, $140 million contract extension on April 8, which is about $15.6 million average annual value (AAV).
Konnor Griffin's Salary Per Year Over Contract Extension
Year | Salary |
|---|---|
2027 | $2,000,000 |
2028 | $4,000,000 |
2029 | $6,000,000 |
2030 | $12,500,000 |
2031 | $21,000,000 |
2032 | $26,500,000 |
2033 | $27,500,000 |
2034 | $27,500,000 |
It works out that he makes most of his money in his three free agent years, while his salary increases over the years Griffin would've been pre-arbitration and arbitration.
The Pirates could convince Lowe that this contract works out better and that they could trade him to another team if they still fail to reach their goals.
It also allows the Pirates a chance to move on from Lowe if his offensive/defensive production starts to decline rapidly.
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Dominic writes for Pittsburgh Pirates On SI, Pittsburgh Panthers Pn SI and also, Pittsburgh Steelers On SI. A Pittsburgh native, Dominic grew up watching Pittsburgh Sports and wrote for The Pitt News as an undergraduate at the University of Pittsburgh, covering Pitt Athletics. He would write for Pittsburgh Sports Now after college and has years of experience covering sports across Pittsburgh.