Pirates vs. Marlins Series: Everything Comes Down to Pitching
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PITTSBURGH — The National League Wild Card race is already taking shape as a crowded, muddled scrum. Entering play this weekend, the Pittsburgh Pirates sit at 35-34, just one game ahead of the 34-35 Miami Marlins. Both teams are within striking distance of a playoff spot, but as they prepare for a three-game series at PNC Park, their pitching staffs are moving in opposite directions.
For the Pirates, the message continues to be urgent and unmistakable: the pitching staff, particularly the bullpen, must be better. Over the past seven days, Pittsburgh’s pitchers have posted a 6.71 ERA, a figure that ranks 29th in Major League Baseball over that span. When you stretch that time span to 15 days, the Pirates still rank a lowly 26th, with a 5.97 ERA. Ditto for the last 30 days, where they're 26th again (5.07 ERA). That's a month of poor pitching.
The recent three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers laid bare every flaw. In those three games alone, the Pirates surrendered 28 runs. This total would be alarming against any opponent, though some may give the Buccos a break against the two-time reigning champions and their lineup full of Hall-of-Famers.
A Memorable But Rough Series
The nadir came on Tuesday night. In what should have been a showcase for ace Paul Skenes, who delivered a quality start, the game unraveled entirely in the seventh inning. The Pirates’ bullpen allowed ten runs in a single frame, turning a 2-2 game into a 12-3 loss. It was the kind of inning that erodes clubhouse confidence and forces a manager to cover for relievers who suddenly cannot find the strike zone or put away hitters.
Wednesday offered a brief reprieve but no real solution. The Pirates won 9-8, scraping together enough offense, namely from Tyler Callihan, to overcome another porous pitching performance. Carmen Mlodzinski was charged with four earned runs, and Gregory Soto allowed two of his own in the ninth to make things interesting. That the team survived was more a testament to the hitters than to any late-game shutdown capability.
Thursday’s series finale saw starter Mitch Keller struggle, permitting five earned runs as the Pirates fell 8-6. Keller saw his ERA rise to 5.14 with a third consecutive shaky outing.
It is fair to note that the Dodgers boast one of the deepest lineups in baseball. But the manner of the runs—walking batters, leaving pitches over the heart of the plate, and an inability to stop innings once they began to spiral—has raised legitimate concerns. The Pirates have now allowed five or more runs in five of their last six games.
It starts with Braxton Ashcraft to turn things around. The emerging All-Star candidate tied a season high with six earned runs allowed against the Atlanta Braves last Saturday. He starts the series opener on Friday and will look to get back on track against Miami.
Strong Marlins Pitching
The timing could not be worse, because the visiting Marlins arrive with the opposite problem. Over the same seven-day stretch, Miami’s pitching staff has compiled a 2.50 ERA, the lowest in the major leagues. While the Pirates were bleeding runs to the Dodgers, the Marlins were stifling the Arizona Diamondbacks, shutting them out in back-to-back games on Wednesday and Thursday. Sandy Alcantara and the rest of the staff will be looking to keep their scoreless streak going in Pittsburgh.
This weekend, run could be at a premium for Pittsburgh’s hitters, putting even more pressure on a home pitching staff that is struggling. But if the past week repeats itself—if walks, home runs, and crooked numbers become routine—it won't matter much what the offense does. The Pirates could find themselves below .500 by Monday morning if the pitching staff does not turn it around. The margin in this NL Wild Card race is thin and likely will be until game 162.
Key Stats
- Lost at Sea: 6.71 ERA for Pirates pitching staff is 29th in MLB over last seven days
- Hooks, Lines and Sinkers: 2.50 ERA for Marlins pitching staff is best in MLB over last seven days
- The Pirates and Marlins have met a total of 235 times. The Pirates lead the series 127-108.
Probable Pitchers & Matchups
Game 1: June 12, 6:40 PM at PNC Park
- PIT: RHP Braxton Ashcraft (5-3, 3.28 ERA, 86 K)
- MIA: RHP Sandy Alcantara (5-4, 4.33 ERA, 64 K)
- Key Battle: Alcantara vs Pirates DH Marcell Ozuna (.357 AVG, 1.007 OPS, 2 HR, 6 RBI in 13 career AB against Alcantara)
Game 2: June 13, 4:05 PM at PNC Park
- PIT: RHP Bubba Chandler (2-7, 4.91 ERA, 62 K)
- MIA: TBD
- Key Battle: Chandler vs Marlins 2B Xavier Edwards (First career matchup)
Game 3: June 14, 12:15 PM at PNC Park
- PIT: RHP Paul Skenes (6-5, 2.84 ERA, 89 K)
- MIA: RHP Max Meyer (6-0, 2.85 ERA, 86 K)
- Key Battle: Meyer vs Pirates 1B Spencer Horwitz (First career matchup)
Players to Watch
- SP Braxton Ashcraft (PIT): Tied a career-high six earned runs in last start against Atlanta
- 1B Spencer Horwitz (PIT): .350/.409/.650, 2 HR, 4 RBI over last seven days
- 2B Otto Lopez (MIA): .423 AVG, 11 H, 3 2B, 1 3B, 4 RBI, 3 SB over last seven days
- SP Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 7 K in last start against Tampa Bay
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Ethan Merrill is from Grand Rapids, MI, and brings with him a diverse background of experiences. After graduating from Michigan State University with a degree in journalism, he worked with the Arizona Diamondbacks for three seasons before settling in the Pittsburgh area in 2020. With a passion for sports and a growing connection to his community, Ethan brings a fresh perspective to covering the Pittsburgh Pirates.