Pirates Season is All But Over
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Just when the 2026 season had showed real promise for the Pittsburgh Pirates, they’re now seeing their chances of snapping a decade-long playoff drought crumbling around them.
With their series-opening loss to the Miami Marlins, one of the clubs they’re chasing in the National League Wild Card race, the Pirates are now 58-63 and 5.0 games back of the final spot.
3-7 in its last 10 contests and 6-14 in its last 20, Pittsburgh is in desperate need of a red-hot stretch to make up some of the ground its ceded recently.
Is there any reason to feel confident that the team can turn its season around at this point though?
Playoff Odds and The Familiar Feeling
With four teams between them and the San Diego Padres, who currently occupy the final WC spot in the NL, climbing up the standings is easier said than done for the Pirates.
As of the morning of August 12, FanGraphs has the odds of Pittsburgh making it into October for the first time since 2015 at 4.6 percent.
Baseball Reference is even more pessimistic about the Pirates' chances, giving them a 1.8 percent chance to crack the postseason field.
On August 1, Pittsburgh's playoff odds sat at 27.6 percent on FanGraphs. On July 22, they were at 47.2 percent. On June 4, they stood at 61.9 percent.
The club's slide has seen their odds fall by nearly 60 percent in a little over two months. It's not like the Pirates, as an organization, are strangers in that regard either.
After all, they bought at the 2024 trade deadline, much like they did this year, and then promptly fell out of the playoff race after going 8-19 in August.
In 2019, Pittsburgh entered the All-Star break just 2.5 games back of both a Wild Card spot and first place in the NL Central. During the second half, however, it went a dismal 25-48.
There are numerous other examples of late-season collapses by the Pirates, and it feels like 2026 might be the next entry in that unfortunate trend.
Are Pittsburgh's Playoff Hopes Over?
Listen, crazier things have happened in MLB over recent years than the Pirates making up five games in a month-and-a-half in order to earn a postseason berth.
Is this really the group that can be entrusted with making the necessary type of surge though? It sure doesn't feel like it.
In order for such a run to happen, Paul Skenes needs to return to his Cy Young Award form from 2025 rather than be pulled after 65 pitches like he was against Miami. Jared Jones will have to shake off some of the rust he's accrued in August too.
The Pirates' new-look bullpen has performed well since the deadline, pitching to a 2.01 ERA since August 3, though an offense that had scored the second-most runs in the league through the end of July has plated the fourth-fewest runs so far this month.
Oneil Cruz is in the middle of a rehab assignment and will provide a huge boost once he's back in the majors, but the absences of Konnor Griffin and Ryan O'Hearn still loom large, especially with the likes of Bryan Reynolds, Brandon Lowe and Esmerlyn Valdez all struggling.
Pittsburgh has the roster talent to turn things around in short order. Again though, it's nearly impossible to buy into the idea that the club has a real run in them.
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Jack is a New Jersey native who graduated from the University of Pittsburgh as a Media & Professional Communications major in 2024 who is now covering the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Yankees for On SI.