Paul Skenes Made Another Major Adjustment—but Something Is Still Off

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I have detailed how the two-month slump of Paul Skenes coincided with him changing his stride direction to be less crossfire and more direct to the plate. The change reduced the offset of his delivery (ball release position relative to mid-rubber) by five to eight inches, a major difference for a pitcher who relies more on horizontal attack angle than vertical attack angle.

So, I was curious how Skenes would look after the Pirates pushed back his most recent start by three days to give him more “recovery.” (Recovery from a five-inning, 65-pitch abbreviated start? Um, okay.)

With seven days between starts, how much tinkering would Skenes do to try to break this slump?

The answer is Skenes made yet another major mechanical adjustment. He returned to his usual crossfire delivery—in a big way. Skenes moved his release point 9 ½ inches more offset (toward third base) from where it was only two starts ago. What had been the least offset horizontal release points of his career suddenly became the second greatest offset release of his career.

Here’s what it looks like in visual form. Note the midseason change in stride direction (front foot landing spot in relation to back foot), and then another severe change in his last start.

Here are what the measurements look like in graph form. You can see the major change in June and July and the big one in the opposite direction this month.

That is a very unusual fluctuation. Here it is just in the past four starts:

Skenes Horizontal Release Point, Past Four Starts

Date	Horizontal Release Point
July 31	-2.04*
Aug. 5	-2.06*
Aug. 11	-2.54
Aug. 19	-2.83+

*Two lowest offset release points of career
+Second most offset release point of career

How did the latest change work? The good news for Skenes is that he found 1.1 mph more on his fastball from the previous start, but that’s misleading because he was coming off a career low of 95.7 mph. His command was poor and the fastball still lacked elite velocity and life.

The biggest problem for Skenes is that he has lost his top-line velocity. The ball simply is not exploding out of his hand the way it did in 2024 and ’25. That’s a major problem because Skenes does not have the kind of elite fastball pitch properties to pitch conventionally with it. His fastball has below average induced vertical break and below average spin. To dominate he needs 1) deception (the extreme horizontal attack angle) and 2) elite velocity.

What has become clear in these past few months is that Skenes has whipsawed through mechanical changes in failed attempts to get his power back.

Here is Skenes’s career in five phases: Rookie of the Year season in 2024, Cy Young season last year, the first 13 starts of this season when his stuff began to diminish, the next 11 starts as he overhauled his stride direction and these past two starts in which he has returned to his usual crossfire delivery.

The Phases of Skenes

Time Period	Horizontal Release Point	FB Velocity (Overall)	FB Velocity (Two Strikes)
2024	-2.32	98.8	99.1
2025	-2.45	98.2	98.4
2026 First 13 GS	-2.54	97.1	97.3
2026 Next 11 GS	-2.16	96.7	96.8
2026 Next 2 GS	-2.70	96.4	96.6

Look closely at that last column. Average fastball velocity with two strikes for a strikeout pitcher is very telling because it reveals what he has at top gear. Skenes no longer has 100 in his back pocket—not even 98. His topline velo has been cratering, no matter the mechanical adjustments. That’s a major shot to the confidence of an ace accustomed to blowing the ball past hitters.

In 2024 and ’25, Skenes hit 99 and above 627 times, or an average of 11 times per start. This season he has hit 99 three times. Not three times per game. Three times all year.

What’s the big problem, you ask? Can’t Skenes win throwing 96 instead of 98? Sure, but it’s a lot harder, especially for someone without elite vert or spin. Just two miles an hour less on a fastball equates to 75 points added to slug:

MLB Four-Seam Fastballs by Velocity, 2026

Velocity	BA	SLG
96 mph	.246	.408
98 mph	.206	.333

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