Texas Rangers Potential Pursuit of Free Agent Superstar Would be Costly

If the Texas Rangers were to go after next offseason’s top free agent, here’s an estimate of what it could cost them.

Feb 17, 2025; Dunedin, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays infielder Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) flips the ball towards first base during spring training at Cecil B. Englebert Complex. | Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images

The Texas Rangers opted to improve their slugging at first base this offseason by trading for Jake Burger and signing Joc Pederson.

With Nathaniel Lowe traded to Washington, the Rangers will likely roll with Burger and Pederson in a tandem at first base, with a utility player like Ezequiel Duran filling in when needed.

Pederson is on a two-year deal with a second-year option. Burger is under team control for the next four years. Both are talented but neither is a franchise cornerstone.

In other words, neither is Toronto first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who figures to be the top free agent next offseason, now that he has shelved extension talks with the Blue Jays.

So how much might he cost the Rangers if they pursued him? CBS Sports projected the Top 10 free agents next offseason and gauged what each’s contract might look like.

For Guerrero, CBS estimated that he would become the seventh free-agent hitter to clear $35 million in average annual value and sign a 12-year, $456 million deal, which would be $38 million. CBS also admitted it was erring on the conservative side.

That’s plenty of money for a franchise that already has significant money wrapped up in big-money contracts. 

Looking ahead to 2026, per Spotrac the Rangers have an estimated payroll of $152 million wrapped up in just six players. If Joc Pederson opts out of the second year of his deal, $21.25 million of it would come off the books. That total doesn’t include arbitration players and pre-arb player salaries.

But the soon-to-be 26-year-old is certainly worth checking in on. In six MLB seasons he has a slash line of .288/.363/.500/.863 with 160 home runs and 507 RBI. He’s made four All-Star Game appearances, won two Silver Sluggers and a Gold Glove.

The Rangers also have an in with Guerrero. His father, Vlad Sr., played with the Rangers for one year in 2010. That season, Texas reached the World Series for the first time with his father serving as the team’s primary designated hitter. He had a terrific year at 35 years old, slashing .300/.345/.496/.841 with 29 home runs and 115 RBI as he made his final All-Star Game appearance.

More important, Guerrero Jr.’s younger brother, Pablo, is in the Rangers’ minor-league system. Signed as an international free agent in 2023, he’s expected to be at Class-A Hickory this season.

Pederson is a left-handed hitter who will face mostly right-handed pitchers. Burger has a lifetime slash of .251/.305/.483/.789 with 72 home runs and 185 RBI. Pederson is situational power. Burger is cheap power.

Guerrero Jr. is power for all seasons, would fill a long-term area of need and give the Rangers perhaps the most powerful lineup in baseball in 2026.

But, as noted, it will cost them.