Why Rangers Shouldn't Be Concerned About Nathan Eovaldi’s Slow Start

Nathan Eovaldi will take the ball for the Texas Rangers as they open their three-game series with the Athletics on Friday at Globe Life Field. History suggests that the 36-year-old right-hander is closing in on his best time of the year.

It’s been an uneven start for the normally reliable Eovaldi. His first two starts were losses and saw him give up a combined 16 hits, 11 earned runs and three walks as his ERA ballooned to 11.42. He bounced back nicely in his next two starts. In 13 combined innings, he gave up nine hits and two earned runs as he struck out 14 and won both games in quality starts.

But, while on the road at Seattle last weekend, he backtracked a bit. He gave up eight hits and four runs (two earned) in five innings as he took the loss.

If there is good news it’s that his underlying numbers, especially in Statcast, show that he’s throwing better than his traditional numbers suggest. That, along with his history as a Rangers starter, tease at what is likely to come when the calendar turns to May.

Nathan Eovaldi At a Glance

Here are Eovaldi’s traditional baseball numbers after five starts:

He is 2-3 with a 5.06 ERA with 29 strikeouts and eight walks in 26.2 innings. He has a 1.54 WHIP and is allowing batters to hit. 295 against him. Left-handed hitters are batting .319 against him while right-handed hitters are batting .250. Lefties have hit four of the five home runs that Eovaldi has allowed.

Langford has collected a bWAR of -0.1. His career best was 4.4 in 2025 when he went 11-3 with a. 1.73 ERA but missed two months with various injuries. Had he thrown enough innings he would have won the AL ERA crown.

Statcast Numbers

Texas Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi throws a baseball — Texas Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi. | Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images

Eovaldi throws six different pitches, but when he’s locked in, he relies on his splitter (38%) and his cutter (23%). He’s used the splitter evenly between left-handed and right-handed hitters, but he’s used the cutter quite a bit more against lefties (28% to 14%). Hitters have been bad against both pitches, batting .192 against the splitter and .211 against the cutter. They’ve done most of their damage against his four-seam fastball (.611) and his sinker (.500), which is why he doesn’t throw them often.

His velocity ranges aren’t that wide, with a four-seamer that averages 94.5 mph and a slider that averages 86.3 mph, but that he rarely throws. With a splitter that averages 88.4 mph and a cutter that averages 90.5 mph, he relieves on location and action to get hitters out.

As a result, Statcast has his offspeed run value in the 100th percentile (+6). He has a high chase rate (43.1%, 80th percentile), a high whiff rate (30.7%, 78th percentile) and a low walk rate (6.6%, 76th percentile). He may be the staff’s best ground ball pitcher, as his ground ball rate is 53.6% and in the 83rd percentile.

So Why Not Worry About Eovaldi?

Texas Rangers pitcher Nathan Eovaldi prepares to throw a baseball — Texas Rangers pitcher Nathan Eovaldi. | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Because in his time with the Rangers, May has been a great month. Just look at what he’s done the past three seasons:

In 2023: 4-0, 0.96 ERA, 31 strikeouts, nine walks (five starts)

In 2024: 1-0, 2.16 ERA, 10 strikeouts, two walks (two starts, missed time with injury)

In 2025: 2-1, 0.68 ERA, 27 strikeouts, seven walks (five starts)

He tends to shake off the rust in March and April around into shape in March, assuming he avoids injury. He is usually more effective in April than he has been this season, but he has had his moments. He’s also only pitched one game at home.

The underlying data and history shows Eovaldi is about to enter his time of the season — and just in time for the Rangers to capitalize on a weak AL West race.

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