MLB Insider Predicts Surprisingly Low Odds of Rays Trading $11.5 Million Slugger
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The Tampa Bay Rays have already addressed one of their weaknesses this offseason, signing veteran outfielder Cedric Mullins to a one-year deal.
He is expected to take over as the team’s starting center fielder, providing a potential boost to the lineup. Mullins started the 2025 season on fire, but his production fell off a cliff in the second half, especially after being traded from the Baltimore Orioles to the New York Mets.
However, his 94 OPS+ would have been the second-best amongst Rays outfielders in 2025, with rookie Jake Mangum being the only one to beat him out with a 96.
Their need for offense is a big reason why the trade rumors surrounding second baseman Brandon Lowe are leaving people scratching their heads. Why would Tampa Bay trade away one of the four players who performed at an above-average level in 2025, creating another void in their lineup?
What are the odds of the Rays trading Brandon Lowe?
It is part of the reason why MLB insider Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN have put the odds of a trade centered around Lowe being so low. The predicted chance of him being traded is 25% in their opinion, and it is easy to see why.
Despite the two-time All-Star checking all the boxes of the kind of player the team would usually look to trade, the Rays eventually have to start retaining some talent. They are at a spending disadvantage compared to their American League East rivals and should keep productive players when they have the chance.
Lowe, when healthy, is one of the most productive second basemen in baseball. He hit 31 home runs last season and had 83 RBI. A legitimate power threat and run producer, he has recorded an OPS+ of at least 101 every year of his career.
Given the need for more offense, on the surface, trading Lowe makes very little sense. But the odds of him being traded aren’t at zero because there are some incentives for Tampa Bay to get a deal done.
Brandon Lowe's value will never be higher for Rays
Involved in trade rumors for years, his value is high right now. He was an All-Star in 2025 and stayed healthy. There is a market for left-handed-hitting infielders, which could create a bidding war.
There have also been some signs of regression in his game. His defensive performance fell off a cliff with a -9 Fielding Run Value, which placed him in the 6th percentile. For the first time in his career, he provided negative Baserunning Run Value with -1, in the 31st percentile.
Of course, teams wouldn’t be lining up to acquire him for those attributes. It is his bat that carries all the value, and that doesn’t look to be slowing down at all.
The only way trading Lowe makes sense for the Rays is if there is a contingency plan to replace his production. That could be Ketel Marte of the Arizona Diamondbacks, with Tampa Bay being mentioned as one of the teams on the radar for the three-time All-Star.
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Kenneth Teape is an alumnus of SUNY Old Westbury and graduated in 2013 with an Honors Degree in Media Communications with a focus on print journalism. During his time at Old Westbury, he worked for the school newspaper and several online publications, such as Knicks Now, the official website of the New York Knicks, and a self-made website with fellow students, Gotham City Sports News. Kenneth has also been a site expert at Empire Writes Back, Musket Fire, and Lake Show Life within the FanSided Network. He was a contributor to HoopsHabit, with work featured on Bleacher Report and Yardbarker. Previously, he is a reporter for both NBA Analysis Network and NFL Analysis Network, as well as a writer and editor for Packers Coverage. You can follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @teapester725, or reach him via email at teapester725@gmail.com.