Rays' Pitcher Projected to Regress Following Fantastic Campaign

Which pitcher on the Tampa Bay Rays could regress in 2026?

Feb 26, 2026; Fort Myers, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays manager Kevin Cash looks on from the dugout during the fourth inning against the Boston Red Sox at JetBlue Park at Fenway South. | Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

As the Tampa Bay Rays get set for the start of the regular season, they will be relying on some key players to perform well if they are going to be a contender in 2026. 

Coming off missing the playoffs the last two years, the Rays are undoubtedly hungry to get back to the postseason. However, making the playoffs in the American League East is going to be no easy task. This was a division that sent three teams to the playoffs in 2025, and one of them won the ALCS. 

This winter, the division continued to improve with a lot of spending going on. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, while they were active in free agency, they didn’t make splashes on the same level as all of the other teams in the division. 

If the Rays are going to compete, they will likely have to overachieve some of their expectations and projections heading into the season. The team is certainly capable of doing that, but it will be a group effort. 

One player who was fantastic for the squad in 2025 was starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen. The right-hander was able to have one of the best years of his career and made the All-Star team. However, in the recent FanGraphs projection, he is expected to see a noticeable regression and that is concerning.

Will Rasmussen Take a Step Back?

Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Coming off such a strong campaign, it is a bit disheartening to see him projected for some serious regression. In the projections, the right-hander is projected to total a 10-8 record and 3.64 ERA. 

Compared to his numbers last year, in which he totaled a 10-5 record and 2.76 ERA, this is a significant drop. However, when looking at some of the advanced stats for Rasmussen, there could be justifiable cause for why he might see some regression. 

Last season, he did have an expected ERA of 3.48 and a FIP of 3.84. Considering his ERA was under 3.00, he might have overperformed slightly based on where he should have been. 

For the Rays, they will be hoping that Rasmussen can continue to pitch as he did in 2025 and be one of the leaders at the top of their rotation. With Shane McClanahan returning from injury after missing the last two years, having this duo pitching well at the top of the rotation could help Tampa Bay succeed in 2026.