Rays Receive Brutal AL East Standings Prediction for Next Season
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The Tampa Bay Rays are coming off a 77-win season in 2025, the first time since 2016, when they won 68 games, that they failed to reach the 80-win plateau in a 162-game season.
Despite the underwhelming campaign, there were reasons to be excited about the Rays heading into the offseason. An impressive core was emerging, headlined by third baseman Junior Caminero.
There is some talent for manager Kevin Cash to work with. First baseman Jonathan Aranda and designated hitter Yandy Diaz are two more above-average performers at the plate. Drew Rasmussen and Ryan Pepiot are mainstays in the starting rotation.
However, former MLB front office executive Jim Bowden of The Athletic (subscription required) doesn’t foresee things getting any better for Tampa Bay in 2026. He recently shared his first batch of predictions, and they are ugly for the Rays.
Rays predicted for last place finish in AL East
Bowden has predicted that Tampa Bay will finish in last place in the American League East. Should that occur, it would be the first time the Rays are in the division cellar since 2016, when they finished 25 games behind the Boston Red Sox.
After finishing in fourth place in two straight seasons, it is unfortunately easy to see why the former MLB front office executive is so low on Tampa Bay heading into the 2026 campaign. On paper, they don’t have what it takes to compete with their AL East rivals.
The Baltimore Orioles, who finished in last place in 2025, reloaded this offseason. First baseman Pete Alonso, relief pitcher Ryan Helsley and starting pitcher Zach Eflin were all signed in free agency. The Rays also traded Shane Baz to Baltimore, and outfielder Taylor Ward was acquired from the Los Angeles Angels.
Those are major upgrades for a team that fell woefully short of expectations in 2025 despite having some incredibly talented young players in their lineup.
Rays have talent deficiency compared to AL East rivals
The reigning AL champions, the Toronto Blue Jays, are also in the division and spent a lot of money in the winter. They may have lost shortstop Bo Bichette in free agency, but they signed starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce and third baseman Kazuma Okamoto.
The New York Yankees didn’t do much this offseason, but they already finished 17 games ahead of Tampa Bay in the standings last year. The Red Sox signed starting pitcher Ranger Suarez and traded for Willson Contreras.
That is a lot of talent coming to the AL East, while it can be argued that the Rays took some steps back this offseason with the state of their roster.
A team in need of offense traded All-Star second baseman Brandon Lowe. That certainly won’t help their outlook for 2026.
Unless young players far exceed expectations, it is hard to envision Tampa Bay avoiding the cellar this year based on how their division foes look right now.
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Kenneth Teape is an alumnus of SUNY Old Westbury and graduated in 2013 with an Honors Degree in Media Communications with a focus on print journalism. During his time at Old Westbury, he worked for the school newspaper and several online publications, such as Knicks Now, the official website of the New York Knicks, and a self-made website with fellow students, Gotham City Sports News. Kenneth has also been a site expert at Empire Writes Back, Musket Fire, and Lake Show Life within the FanSided Network. He was a contributor to HoopsHabit, with work featured on Bleacher Report and Yardbarker. Previously, he is a reporter for both NBA Analysis Network and NFL Analysis Network, as well as a writer and editor for Packers Coverage. You can follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @teapester725, or reach him via email at teapester725@gmail.com.