Rays vs Cardinals Season Opening Series Preview
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Here. We. Go. Opening Day has arrived, and at long last, Tampa Bay baseball is back. While the realistic projections of the Rays being the weakest team in a loaded division aren’t exactly false, nothing can dampen the feeling Opening Day brings.
The standings will start level this week, and on Thursday, March 26th, Tampa Bay takes the field for the first time in the regular season in St. Louis. Here’s how Kevin Cash’s squad is projected to line up against an opponent that spent the majority of the offseason rebuilding and selling off key pieces.
Game 1: Drew Rasmussen vs. Matthew Liberatore
There was a point in time when Rays fans thought Matthew Liberatore could be a future Opening Day starter for their team. The former Tampa Bay first-round pick in 2018 offered a huge ceiling for a high school arm standing at a daunting 6-foot-4, with multiple plus pitches. It was enough of a sell for the Cardinals, who took him in what they thought was the centerpiece of a trade where they gave up Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena in return. The rest, as they say, is history. Arozarena etched his name in baseball history as a postseason hero and is now in the hearts of many Rays fans who longingly gaze at his Seattle highlights.
Liberatore, though, has been quietly getting better since his first rough couple of years. His bread and butter is in his off-speed pitches, which ranks among some of the best when it comes to run value. His slider and curveball both generate a huge amount of whiff, and it’s how he’s been masking a mediocre fastball with an exciting repertoire of breaking stuff. Still, his fastball gets tagged, and facing a lefty on opening Day will really test a new look Rays lineup that sported a collective .667 against lefties last year.
Rasmussen, on the other hand, might somehow still be baseball’s best-kept secret among top arms. Maybe it’s because he broke out in a year where the Rays played displaced from Tropicana Field or the several arm injuries that took him off the map for so many years. He doesn’t care because this Opening Day nod confirms him as a staff ace and leader for a Tampa Bay team that will lean heavily on him. With a top ten finish in Cy Young voting last year, Rasmussen will look to keep his positive momentum going into 2026, and there’s no better team to do it against than a stripped-down Cardinals lineup.
Where St. Louis has the potential to steal games in this set is with their bullpen. For such a quiet, middling team last year, the Cardinals had and still do have lockdown arms for late innings. These aren’t the household names everyone knows, but JoJo Romero, Matt Svanson, and Riley O’Brien were among baseball’s best relievers of 2025. Where there are weaknesses in the St. Louis rotation and lineup, the Rays need to be careful not to rely on late rallies for wins.
Tampa Bay’s bullpen is quality and should be most of the year. The closer committee of Cleavinger, Jax, and Uceta projects to be above average, and as most pens in Rays’ history, it’s deep. Baker and Kelly are the next in line, high-leverage relievers who should be in plenty of close games, while longer outing arms like Englert and Seymour fill out a staff that will need innings filled.
Game 2: Joe Boyle vs. Michael McGreevy
Interestingly, Joe Boyle will start the second game of the season. Ryan Pepiot is dealing with hip inflammation, so Boyle gets the call-up to fill in. As far as last-minute spot starters go, he’s one of the best in the game to have around. One of the most dominant arms in Triple-A last year, Boyle has been trying to bridge the gap to the majors that so many players struggle with. And with him, especially, it’s a classic case of an amazing arm that frustratingly loses the strike zone more often than not.
His average 98-100 mph fastball wreaks havoc in the minors, but taking his stuff and challenging great major leaguers is the next test. A spot starting role is how Boyle will most likely be used all season. There is a hope he can go the Tyler Glasnow way of trusting pure velocity to become a high-ceiling power pitcher.
Michael McGreevy is as different a starter from Boyle as can be. On Saturday, he will be deploying five pitches to dot the zone and let his defense do the rest. That’s not to assume McGreevy should be easy to hit. His numbers are yet to take off, but indicators are pointing him in the right direction. A consistently top-ranked pitching prospect in the Cardinals organization, he has an established minor league track record of success to make St. Louis feel confident handing him the ball.
His sinker was the pitch to make the most development last year. It served as a consistent out pitch against righties who rolled over it into the jaws of top defenders Winn and Arenado. Look for Cash to deploy as many lefties as he can to avoid what’s become a devastating sinker in this starter’s toolbox.
On a non-pitching note, the Rays' lineup will face a lefty and righty in their first games, giving a chance to see how the platoons and bench will be deployed. So far, we know Taylor Walls and Gavin Lux are battling injuries out of the gate. That’s opened room for Richie Palcios, while Carson Williams was promptly turned around from his minor league reassignment to be dubbed the Opening Day starting shortstop.
Ben Williamson and Ryan Vilade made the roster, which should add right-handed depth to a lineup featuring an all-lefty outfield. The rest is pretty set with Caminero, Diaz, and Aranda rounding out the infield, and Fortes and Feduccia handling catching. Jacob Melton did not make the cut, and instead, Chandler Simpson, Cedric Mullins, and Jake Fraley look to start the year in the outfield.
The lineup isn’t one to feel awesome about, but there’s reason to believe it can improve from last year’s woes. Fresh faces, returning ones looking to develop skillsets, and the ever-present positive regression give reason for optimism.
Game 3: Steven Matz vs. Dustin May
Matz will begin the year like he did last year, in the city of St. Louis. This time, he will be starting against his former employer. It was with the Cardinals that Matz started to find his recipe for success in the bullpen. An uptick in usage on a devastating curveball as a true out pitch and impeccable control made Matz a successful late-inning arm.
He continued to flourish as a reliever after being traded to Boston. The Rays are betting on that different repertoire usage as an indicator for a new Steven Matz that can retake a starter's workload. If the walk percentage can stay as low as it did in 2025, but with almost double the innings, Matz will make well on the $15 million he received from Tampa Bay.
Freak injuries and Tommy John surgeries have dimmed the star that was supposed to be Dustin May. Before 2025, staying on the field was the hardest part. He flashed brilliance with sinking and sweeping stuff that appeared as if it bent air but could never hold up to the demanding starter’s workload.
Then last season, he threw a record high 132.1 innings, as the injury gods spared him. Unfortunately, this monkey’s paw tradeoff meant those innings were also the worst of his career, and May found himself bounced off the champion-bound Dodgers, where he spiraled even further in Boston. He came in at a bargain for St. Louis this offseason, who nabbed him on a one-year deal that really has no risk.
The sharp drop off in velocity and spike in exit velocities on all his pitches give pause for thought. However, a rebuilding Cardinals team without pressure to constantly fight for a rotation spot should give him time to focus on rebuilding his game.
Facing Matz and the Rays in this three-game set is an extremely young Cardinals lineup. St. Louis spent much of their offseason tearing up the floorboards and selling almost everything they could. Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan, Willson Contreras, and Sonny Gray trades helped to bolster a now top farm system, but the present product is rough.
The Chaim Bloom era Cardinals look at 2026 as a lost year winning wise but hopeful for player development in key youngsters. Masyn Winn and J.J. Wetherholt have the ceiling to become an all-star middle infield, and names like Jimmy Crooks and Quinn Matthews might keep fans coming to the ballpark. Beyond that, the St. Louis faithful will probably spend more time looking at prospect lists than what the major league team is up to.
Sam Hougham is an alumnus of UC Santa Barbara, who earned his degree in Communication. He is a passionate baseball writer and researcher who began his career at Diamond Digest, a platform for up-and-coming voices in baseball writing. Since then, he has launched his own website, The Daily Lineup Card, where he publishes long-form analytical pieces focused on scouting, drafting, and team analysis. A lifelong Tampa Bay Rays fan, Sam’s other sports interests include Aston Villa FC and the English Premier League, the NHL, and the NFL. You can follow him on X, @samuelhougham, or reach him via email at samhougham791@gmail.com.