Rays Outfielder Battling Father Time and Period of Decline

A slow start has a Tampa Bay Rays outfielder facing the debate of a slump or period of decline.

May 24, 2026; Bronx, New York, USA; Tampa Bay Rays center fielder Cedric Mullins (31) hits a single against the New York Yankees during the ninth inning at Yankee Stadium. | John Jones-Imagn Images

Jim Bowden of The Athletic (subscription required) compiled a list of veteran players across the league who are currently struggling, and a Tampa Bay Rays player, unfortunately, made the cut.

The former MLB executive determined whether he believes each player is just in a slump and can work their way out of it and return to form, or if they are in a period of decline.

Rays outfielder Cedric Mullins was the one Bowden highlighted. The 31-year-old has underperformed so far this season, slashing .189/.257/.277 with three homers, 15 RBIs and a .534 OPS in 46 games. Despite only being 31 years old, the outfielder has shown signs of regression over the past few seasons, with 2026 being his first year with Tampa Bay.

Determining whether a rough stretch is just a normal slump that every player goes through or if it’s a long-term progression that comes with age can be difficult. However, Bowden concluded that Mullins’ struggles indicate he’s in a decline period.

Cedric Mullins could be in a decline period of his career

May 15, 2026; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays center fielder Cedric Mullins (31) bunts for single in the second inning against the Miami Marlins at Tropicana Field. | Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images

Looking at his on-base percentage the past three seasons, Mullins’ mark has decreased in each of those campaigns. He had a .305 OBP in 147 games in 2024, .299 in 133 games in 2025 and .257 in 46 games so far in 2026. His .534 OPS is the worst mark of his career aside from a brief 22 games played in 2019.

Throughout his career, Mullins has been known for his speed and his ability to steal bases. The numbers indicate that the veteran outfielder has lost a step, as his sprint speed is in the 58th percentile so far this season.

Mullins is typically a threat to run when on base, having stolen 22 bags or more four times in his career. On the other hand, in 2026, Mullins had 10 stolen bases in 15 attempts, getting caught one-third of the time.

Despite losing a step on the bases and in the outfield, Mullins continues to be a solid defender. Tampa Bay’s manager, Kevin Cash, has continued to show faith in the veteran, allowing him to work through his early-season struggles.

A key comparison to Mullins, looking at a speedy center fielder who had success early on in his career but regressed earlier than expected, is Jacoby Ellsbury.

Cedric Mullins has struggled at the plate this season, posting a brutal 16 wRC+.

Still, there are reasons to believe some positive regression could be coming. His 19% Whiff% (76th percentile) and 21% Pull-Air% (87th percentile) are both encouraging.

He has been an excellent… pic.twitter.com/dFaEBn9VWg

— Off The Trop (@OffTheTrop) May 12, 2026

Ellsbury enjoyed several elite seasons early on in his career, then his numbers diminished as injuries derailed his career at the age of 34.

At one point in time, Ellsbury led all of baseball in stolen bases twice and led the American League once, while also leading the entire league in bWAR with an 8.3 mark in his best season in 2011. That season, he finished second in AL MVP voting as a member of the Boston Red Sox.

A few years later, entering his age-30 season, Ellsbury signed a seven-year, $153 million deal with the New York Yankees before the 2014 campaign.

His career came to an end after he dealt with a plethora of injuries, resulting in him playing his final season at the age of 33, and not playing a game in the final three years of his contract.

Cedric Mullins at least staying healthy, making impact defensively

Apr 4, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Tampa Bay Rays center fielder Cedric Mullins (31) catches a fly ball hit by Minnesota Twins catcher Ryan Jeffers (not pictured) in the seventh inning at Target Field. | Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

When it comes to Mullins, his decline will be something for the Rays to keep an eye on, to see if this is a long-term situation or just a temporary slump.

He signed a one-year deal worth $6.5 million, per Baseball Reference, with Tampa Bay prior to the 2026 season and has a $10 million mutual option for 2027.

There is still time for Mullins to turn his season around. Cash and the Rays are giving him every opportunity to return to form as they aim to revive his bat.

In the meantime, perhaps his defense can make up for his offensive struggles. His defense has been above average this season, and with Tampa Bay sitting in first place with the best record in the A.L., the Rays can afford to give Mullins the reps he needs to turn it around offensively.