Insider Details Red Sox's Roadmap, Hurdle In Pursuit Of $500 Million Superstar

Will the Red Sox go all-out to get this slugger?

Sep 29, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays designated hitter Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) walks back to the dugout before the start of a game against the Miami Marlins at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images | Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

The Boston Red Sox are still waiting to find out how their marquee acquisitions from this offseason will pan out, but much of Major League Baseball already seems to be looking ahead to next winter.

In November, Toronto Blue Jays superstar first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will hit the open market. Already a four-time All-Star by age 25, Guerrero could be heading for a massive payday, and the Red Sox have already been mentioned frequently in the rumor mill.

According to USA Today's Bob Nightengale, Guerrero has made it clear that he would love to play for Boston someday. He's a great fit for Fenway Park, the Red Sox need right-handed bats, and his age makes him a desirable target for every team, especially Boston.

How likely is it that the Red Sox will get heavily involved for Guerrero, though?

MassLive's Sean McAdam attempted to spell out some of the reasons the Red Sox might and might not be top suitors for Guerrero, who he projected would clear $500 million on the open market next winter.

"One of the reasons the Red Sox were willing to offer ($700 million) was (Juan) Soto, a galvanizing offensive weapon, was just 26 years old as he negotiated his mammoth deal," McAdam wrote. "Presumably, the same actuarial tables would also factor into their pursuit of Guerrero and allow them to compete in the high end of the market, something they’ve done infrequently in the last decade."

"The Red Sox could have a payroll easily in excess of $300 million. By 2027, a new (collective bargaining agreement) will be in place, so there’s no way to know what (competitive balance tax) thresholds will be, or if they’ll even exist."

"But one thing’s for sure: there will be penalties in place at that price point that will add to the Sox' tax bill. For a team that’s never gone over $250 million on its CBT number before this year, that’s quite a leap."

Even though the Red Sox have spent over the CBT in 2025, the jump to a $300 million payroll (which only three teams have at the moment) is certainly a stretch. But Guerrero might be a player worth taking that leap of faith for.

A lot can change between now and November. By then, perhaps we'll have an indication which of McAdam's conflicting notions is more likely to win out.

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