Latest Red Sox 2025 Record Projection Is Sure To Raise Alarm Among Boston Fans

The season can't go this poorly... can it?

Aug 20, 2023; Bronx, New York, USA; Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora (13) argues with home plate umpire Junior Valentine (25) after getting ejected in the sixth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images | Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Optimism about the Boston Red Sox's 2025 season, brought on by the team's big additions in December, has slowly begun to fade.

The Red Sox got their fan base jazzed up with the acquisitions of pitchers Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler. But while the offense has clearly needed a right-handed power bat all offseason, they've yet to come close to landing one.

Following three straight seasons without a playoff berth, the Red Sox simply cannot afford another lackluster season. But as preseason projections begin to trickle out, fears that such a season might occur may begin to stir.

On Monday, Baseball Prospectus updated its PECOTA model projecting the 2025 Major League Baseball standings, and the Red Sox were surprisingly picked to finish last in the AL East with a rounded total of 78 wins - 11 games behind the first-place New York Yankees.

There are some noteworthy individual projections within the PECOTA modeling that could explain why the Red Sox's total is so low. Crochet is only projected for 129 innings pitched, which would be 17 fewer than he threw last season. In fact, the model has a six-man projected rotation for Boston, with Tanner Houck throwing the most innings at 150.

The model also projects very little playing time for top prospects Kristian Campbell (140 PA) and Roman Anthony (175 PA). If those two appear early in the season and have the impact they appear to be capable of, it should add a few more wins to the ledger.

Perhaps worst of all, PECOTA projects Garrett Whitlock, who could be the most important reliever on the team if he excels in his familiar multi-inning role, to throw just 23 innings this season. He threw at least 70 innings in each of his first three big-league seasons before injury cost him his season last April.

There's plenty of reason to believe the Red Sox can outperform PECOTA's underwhelming expectations in 2025. But the model does encapsulate a feeling that the Red Sox can and should do more to improve this roster before the season gets underway.

As for whether or not they will make those additions? That's a question for the Boston front office and ownership suite.

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