Red Sox Running Out Of Time To Make Lucas Giolito QO Decision

The Boston Red Sox made their first decision of the offseason involving Lucas Giolito and now there is another on the way.

The deadline for teams to offer players the qualifying offer is on Thursday at 5 p.m. ET. The qualifying offer is worth just north of $22 million for the 2026 season ($22.025 million). Of the players on the Red Sox, Giolito is the guy who has had all eyes on him from the perspective of the qualifying offer.

On Nov. 3rd, the Red Sox declined Giolito's $19 million mutual option for the 2026 season. While this is the case, Giolito is still the guy to watch in the final few hours before the qualifying offer deadline. If the Red Sox offer him the deal and he accepts, then Boston will have Giolito on a one-year deal for the 2026 campaign. If the Red Sox offer it and Giolito opts to sign elsewhere, the Red Sox would get draft compensation in return, like last year with Nick Pivetta.

Let's get into the pros and cons of such a move:

What's next for Lucas Giolito?

Sep 6, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Boston Red Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito (54) celebrates after Boston Red Sox outfielder Ceddanne Rafaela (3) robs a home run during the fifth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images | Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images

Pros

Much-needed continuity for the rotation
Giolito is a talented pitcher who has shown he can have success with Boston. He had a 3.41 ERA in 26 starts in 2025 for the Red Sox. He had a 2.83 ERA in his final 10 starts when Boston was pushing for a playoff spot. Boston knows he can have success with the organization and he's been with the team the last two years.

One-year deal
If he were to accept, this would be just a one-year deal, and with uncertainty around baseball beyond the 2026 season due to the CBA, it wouldn't hurt to not have long-term commitments on the books -- especially in the rotation -- with the landscape uncertain.

Draft compensation
The first two pros are if it is offered and Giolito accepts. If he leaves, there's a pro as well with a draft pick. You never know what will happen with these picks. For example, Roman Anthony was selected with a draft pick received from Eduardo Rodriguez turning down the qualifying offer.

Cons

Price
There really aren't many cons to this idea. The biggest argument would be the price of just over $22 million, although with the prices of pitchers in free agency rising, it really isn't that big of a jump. He signed a two-year, $38.5 million deal with Boston, so this sounds high. The price really isn't that high for a starter who can be at least a No. 3 in a solid rotation, but tying up $22 million right away would likely impact how the rest of the offseason plays out if he were to accept it.

Injury to end the season
Giolito wasn't able to pitch in the playoffs due to an elbow issue. Although he's reportedly trending in the right direction with his health, it's still something worth considering.

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