Red Sox's Jarren Duran Gets Bullish Projection Amid Trade Rumors

Are we collectively underselling Jarren Duran?

The Boston Red Sox's 29-year-old outfielder seems to be the low man on the totem pole in the discussion of who to prioritize, with Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu all clearly deserving of major roles this year.

But perhaps the Red Sox are also very much in the right when it comes to not trading Duran for the sake of roster harmony. Let's explore that concept a bit more, because one expert's assessment of Duran and his projections for the coming season were quite bullish.

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Could Duran go for 30/30 this year?

Sep 6, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Boston Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran (16) runs to third during the sixth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images | Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images

In a recent MLB.com article, analyst Manny Randhawa broke down some of Duran's shortcomings from last season, and pointed out a couple of significant, but manageable approach changes that could have the 29-year-old back to his offensive production from 2024 (about 50 points of additional OPS).

"If Duran can cut down on the chase rate and return to a more aggressive approach in the strike zone, we might see him recapture his form from two years ago, or perhaps be even better," Randhawa wrote.

Then, Randhawa got a big bullish on Duran's projections for this season, suggesting that the outfielder could enter some rare air among power-speed players across the league.

"With his tremendous speed (his 29.1 feet/second sprint speed ranks in the 91st percentile), Duran’s baserunning value is among the best in the game (+7 run value in 2025, 98th percentile)," Randhawa added.

"Will we see Duran run more in 2026? It remains to be seen, but he seems like a 30-homer/30-steal player waiting to happen."

The Red Sox have had exactly two 30-30 players in their history: Most Valuable Player Mookie Betts in 2018 and Jacoby Ellsbury, who probably should have gotten more MVP consideration, in 2011.

None of that is to say that Duran is guaranteed to have a monster year, or even that he shouldn't be traded. But the Boston front office is simply recognizing his immense potential value by not shipping him off for any old package, and that's the right approach.

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