Inside The Red Sox

Red Sox's Updated Magic Number As Guardians Close Wild Card Gap

Things are certainly getting dicey...
Jackson Roberts|
Sep 16, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman (2) attempts to blow a ball foul during the eighth inning against the Athletics at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images
Sep 16, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman (2) attempts to blow a ball foul during the eighth inning against the Athletics at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images | Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

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Boston Red Sox

With 11 games to go in the regular season, the Boston Red Sox certainly aren't making things easy on themselves.

The Red Sox suffered an excruciating 2-1 loss to the Athletics on Tuesday, dropping them to 82-69 on the season. In a tight pennant race, dropping winnable games to sub-.500 teams is unacceptable, even if the A's are playing better baseball as of late.

The real kicker was that the Cleveland Guardians won their extra-inning game against the Detroit Tigers, drawing them within 2 1/2 games of the Red Sox after ripping of a hot streak of 10 victories in their last 11 contests.

Red Sox's Updated Magic Number, Playoff Odds

Any day in which the Red Sox's magic number to clinch a playoff spot doesn't change is bad news. That was the unfortunate case on Tuesday, as miraculously, Cleveland has emerged from the brink of elimination to become a threat to the Red Sox.

The Guardians are 80-71, only two back of Boston in the loss column. Fortunately, the Red Sox own the tiebreaker, so their magic number to finish ahead of Cleveland is nine.

A combination of Red Sox wins and Guardians losses that adds up to nine isn't guaranteed to get Boston in, because their magic number to finish ahead of the Texas Rangers is eight. Texas and Cleveland play each other for a three-game set to finish the regular season.

Meanwhile, Tuesday's results dropped Boston's odds to make the playoffs by just under 5%, according to Fangraphs. Entering play on Tuesday, their odds sat at 91.1%, and a day later, they're now down to 86.4%.

Fangraphs also had the Guardians down to a 2.5% chance of making the playoffs at the conclusion of play on Sept. 2, and they're now up to 14.3% entering Wednesday.

That Sept. 2 game was the night the Red Sox won a dramatic 11-7 decision against the Guardians at Fenway Park, but also lost rookie outfielder Roman Anthony for the rest of the regular season. They've been holding on for dear life ever since.

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Jackson Roberts
JACKSON ROBERTS

Jackson Roberts is a former Division III All-Region DH who now writes and talks about sports for a living. A Bay Area native and a graduate of Swarthmore College and the Newhouse School at Syracuse University, Jackson makes his home in North Jersey. He grew up rooting for the Red Sox, Patriots, and Warriors, and he recently added the Devils to his sports fandom mosaic. For all business/marketing inquiries regarding Boston Red Sox On SI, please reach out to Scott Neville: scott@wtfsports.org

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