How the Cubs Can Fix Their Starting Pitching Problem

The Cubs’ offense was the best in baseball last season, leading MLB in OPS (.767), runs scored (850), walks (674), and slugging percentage (.428). Even if the lineup hadn’t collectively collapsed in the wild-card round against San Diego, Chicago had a glaring weakness that hindered the team’s upside—its starting pitching, which allowed seven runs in 7 1/3 innings against the Padres to continue a year-long trend.

Cubs starters surrendered the third-most home runs last season and ranked in the bottom half of MLB in ERA and strikeouts. Their rotation dealt with myriad injuries to key pitchers. Cade Horton missed nearly the entire season with an elbow injury. Justin Steele hasn’t pitched since 2024 and was unable to make it back for the end of the campaign. Edward Cabrera bounced between the injured list and the rotation while dealing with various ailments. Ben Brown missed the second half of the season with a neck injury, and Matthew Boyd missed about a month with a knee injury.

The team tried to address its pitching issues at the trade deadline, swinging deals to acquire Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes and Braxton Garrett after having traded for David Peterson in June. Still, those additions did not make much of a difference in the end, as Holmes struggled down the stretch, Garrett spent much of the second half in Triple A and Gausman was tagged with the loss in Game 2 of the wild-card series after allowing three runs in 3 1/3 innings.

After a disappointing season on the pitching front, the Cubs have several important decisions to make as it relates to the rotation. Numerous starters are set to hit free agency, including Shota Imanaga, who was their most reliable arm throughout the campaign, as well as Gausman, Boyd, Holmes and Peterson.

They still have some in-house reinforcements with which they can replenish the rotation. Chicago will be hoping Steele is ready to go next season, though he’ll likely be on an innings limit in his return to action, and that Horton won’t have any setbacks in his recovery from elbow surgery so he can rejoin the mix at some point in the season. Cabrera should also play a role if he’s able to stay healthy. The team will also have Garrett, Brown and Javier Assad under contract next season, but they lack a true anchor and ace of the rotation.

Fortunately, there are multiple frontline starters set to hit free agency this winter, as well as a number of intriguing trade candidates who could be on the move. The Cubs have some options.

Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Tarik Skubal — Tarik Skubal could be an option for the Cubs this offseason, if they’re willing to meet his contract demands in free agency. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Will the Cubs pursue Tarik Skubal?

More likely than not, Cubs owner Tom Ricketts will not want to pony up the cash required to reel in Skubal, but that doesn’t mean the team won’t at least explore the possibility of bringing the two-time Cy Young winner to Wrigleyville. Skubal is the crown jewel of the free agent market, so it would make sense that a Chicago team that’s getting several contracts off the books and has a clear need in its rotation would be linked to him. But with Skubal in line to make as much as $40 to $45 million annually in free agency, the Cubs may opt to look for less expensive options.

Still, there would be no greater fix to the Cubs’ most glaring weakness than signing Skubal. He’d instantly become their ace and allow them to use their depth to fill out the rest of the rotation. He’s a two-time Cy Young winner, has previously won the Triple Crown and has been one of the top arms in the sport for the past half decade. He’ll be 30 at the start of next season, so he’s still in his prime. Adding Skubal to the Cubs’ rotation would instantly vault them into World Series contention, but would the front office really be willing to give him the deal he’s looking for?

If a Skubal acquisition isn’t in the cards for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and GM Carter Hawkins, there are some other high-end starters they may turn to on the open market or via trade.

Free agent fits

If the Cubs are looking to sign a free agent pitcher to address their needs, but don’t think a Skubal pursuit is financially viable, they could look to some of the starters in the tier below the former Tigers and Dodgers standout. Michael King and Freddy Peralta are both coming off strong seasons, or a strong second half in Peralta’s case, and will be in the market for long-term contracts.

King would be a great fit for the Cubs. He’d slot into the ace role in Chicago after impressing with the Padres last season, including throwing seven scoreless innings against the Cubs in the National League wild-card series. King pitched a career-high 185 innings in the regular season and struck out 159 batters while maintaining a 3.21 ERA. He walks too many hitters, having surrendered 70 last season, but is still able to limit damage even after giving up a free pass. While King isn’t necessarily a ground ball pitcher, he had a 45.1% ground ball rate last season (66th percentile), which would fit well with the Cubs’ strong defensive infield.

Peralta also makes plenty of sense as a free agent option for Chicago. He struggled in the first half of last season but found his footing after being acquired by the Rays at the trade deadline. Peralta has the talent to be the ace of a rotation, and he’s familiar with the NL Central after playing the first seven seasons of his career with the Brewers, where he played under current Cubs manager Craig Counsell.

The team could also look to bring back free agent Clay Holmes as a depth addition to the rotation. Holmes’s tendency to induce ground balls makes him a solid fit for the Cubs. He wasn’t all too sharp after Chicago acquired him at last year’s trade deadline, logging a 4.25 ERA across nine starts, but he could still be a strong mid-rotation option for the franchise.

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan — Twins pitcher Joe Ryan has been named an All-Star in each of the last two seasons. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Trade targets

If the Cubs are keen on making a splash in the trade market to shore up their rotation, three pitchers stand out as strong fits; Joe Ryan, Reid Detmers and Drew Rasmussen.

Ryan is entering the final year of his contract with the Twins and could be available to acquire if Minnesota isn’t optimistic about its chances of signing him to an extension. The 30-year-old is coming off a season in which he recorded a 3.79 ERA with 159 strikeouts against 31 walks across 144 2/3 innings. Ryan is somewhat prone to hard contact, but he also boasts elite control and ranked in the 96th percentile with just a 5% walk rate last year. If Chicago is going to dip into its pool of prospects to swing a trade for Ryan, they’ll need to be confident that he’d be willing to sign an extension and stick around for the long haul.

Detmers is a younger option that comes with two years of team control. The southpaw is still just 27 years old, and he’s coming off his best season in which he made 32 starts and recorded a 3.36 ERA with 211 strikeouts (seventh-most in MLB) and 4.2 bWAR. Detmers ranked in the 83rd percentile with a 6.5% walk rate and in the 87th percentile with a 28.5% strikeout rate, and he still has room to improve as he gets more starting experience under his belt.

As for Rasmussen, he’s due to earn $20 million in what is the final year of his contract with the Rays. Tampa Bay may be looking to move him to avoid having to pay that salary, and the Cubs should be interested if Rasmussen does become available for trade. The 31-year-old was one of the best pitchers in MLB last season, logging 172 innings and striking out 174 while walking just 32 batters. He owned a 2.67 ERA (seventh-best in MLB) and surrendered just 14 home runs (tied for the fourth-fewest among qualified starters). He also had a strong October, helping lead the Rays to a World Series berth while maintaining a 2.20 ERA across five postseason starts.

Projecting the Cubs 2026 rotation

Assuming the Cubs don’t go all out for Skubal, here’s an example of what their rotation could look like:

1. Michael King
2. Justin Steele
3. Clay Holmes
4. Edward Cabrera
5. Ben Brown

Depth: Javier Assad, Braxton Garrett

With Steele likely set to operate on an innings limit, the Cubs may opt to roll with a six-man rotation, which would likely see Garrett bumped into the role of the sixth starter, at least to start the campaign. Assad could be utilized as a swing-man with the potential to shift into the starting rotation in case of injury. Horton likely won’t be available at the start of the season, but he could serve as a midseason addition when he’s ready to return to the mound. King’s spot in this hypothetical rotation could be replaced with any of the other aforementioned free agent and trade targets, depending upon which major move Chicago is able to pull off.

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