Garrett Crochet 'Red Flag' Emerges for Struggling Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox are going to send Garrett Crochet to the mound on Saturday and it's arguably going to be the most important start of the season for him so far in 2026.

Crochet is a superstar. That much is true. His first three starts of the season were solid, but his last two have been a struggle, to say the least. Crochet had the worst start of his career on April 13 against the Minnesota Twins. That day, Crochet allowed 10 earned runs, and 11 runs total. Throughout the week in the aftermath, Crochet noted that he believed that his pitch mix being too predictable was the reason why he struggled against Minnesota.

Unfortunately, he wasn't able to fully bounce back in his next start. On April 19, Crochet tossed five innings against the Detroit Tigers and allowed two homers and five earned runs. Shockingly, Crochet has the worst ERA in the Boston rotation right now at 7.88. Overall, the Red Sox have struggled this season and are 9-16. With the team struggling to this point, they need their No. 1 starter to pitch like an ace to help right the ship.

Crochet's start on Saturday is going to be a true indication of where he's at. The perception of him isn't great around the league right now. MLB.com's Mark Feinsand called his performance a "red flag" and specifically cited an anonymous National League executive who pointed to Crochet's velocity decline as a "concern" after leading the league with 205 1/3 innings pitched in 2025.

The Red Sox Ace Has Struggled

Apr 19, 2026; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Garrett Crochet (35) pitches against the Detroit Tigers during the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images | Eric Canha-Imagn Images

"Another red flag has been the performance of Garrett Crochet, last year’s AL Cy Young Award runner-up, who has a 7.88 ERA in his first five starts," Feinsand wrote. "The left-hander ranks in the bottom third of the league in whiff percentage, hard-hit percentage and ground-ball percentage, three categories in which he ranked in the top 25 percent a year ago.

“Crochet’s velocity is a concern and definitely something to monitor,” an NL exec said. “[The Red Sox] deserve a lot of credit for that trade and that extension, but people forget his MLB innings last year basically matched the prior three years combined, so it wouldn't be that surprising to see some fatigue this year.”

They're not wrong, by any means. Crochet is in the 68th percentile in fastball velocity right now at 95.6 miles per hour. In 2025, he was in the 82nd percentile with an average 96.3 miles per hour fastball. His advanced metrics have taken a significant hit. Right now, he's in the first percentile in pitching run value, third percentile in fastball run value, and second percentile in breaking run value. Last season, those numbers were in the 99th, 95th, and 99th percentiles.

Right now, he's also in the 18th percentile in expected ERA and 20th percentile in expected batting average against.

Clearly, his fastball has been down this season so far. Everything else is built off that pitch. But is this just a short-term blip or something to be worried about? We'll find out more on Saturday.

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