3 Wild Stats Show Just How Improbable the Reds Comeback Against the Giants Was

It was looking like a scene we've seen way too often lately. The Cincinnati Reds looked dead in the water entering the ninth inning of Wednesday's series finale against the San Francisco Giants.

They trailed 9-3 and were three outs away from being swept. It would have been the first time the Giants had swept a team all season. Instead, the Reds put together one of the most improbable comebacks in franchise history, scoring seven runs in the top of the ninth to stun the Giants 10-9.

The comeback was incredible enough just to watch, but some of the numbers that surfaced afterward put into perspective just how unlikely it really was.

According to Sarah Langs, the Reds are now just 3-1,917 all-time when trailing by six or more runs entering the ninth inning.

The other two wins came on May 8, 1958, against the Chicago Cubs and May 8, 1918, against the St. Louis Cardinals. Wednesday marked the first time Cincinnati had pulled off a comeback like this in more than 68 years. The 3-1,917 record was provided by the Elias Sports Bureau.

Somehow, that might not even be the craziest number from Wednesday.

According to ESPN Insights, ESPN Analytics gave the Reds just a 0.3% chance to win when they entered the ninth inning trailing by six runs.

In other words, Cincinnati had roughly a three-in-1,000 chance of coming back to win the game.

One Last Crazy Statistic

Aug 26, 2026; San Francisco, California, USA; Cincinnati Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson (37) hits an RBI single during the ninth inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

As if those last two stats weren't wild enough, there is one final stat that will blow your mind.

The Reds entered the ninth inning trailing by six while hitting just .226 as a team this season. According to OptaSTATS, no other MLB team in the modern era has ever entered the ninth inning down by that much with a team batting average that low and still managed to win.

Hector Rodriguez started the rally with his second home run of the afternoon, a monster shot into McCovey Cove. Elly De La Cruz followed with a single before consecutive walks loaded the bases.

Eugenio Suarez then completely changed the game with a grand slam that cut San Francisco's lead to 9-8. The Reds eventually tied it on a Jose Trevino sacrifice fly before Tyler Stephenson came off the bench and delivered the go-ahead RBI single.

Emilio Pagan finished it off in the bottom of the ninth with his 17th save of the season, and one of the most unlikely wins in Reds history was complete.

A 0.3% win probability, a 3-1,917 all-time record and a comeback accomplished under circumstances no other MLB team in the modern era had overcome.

Not a bad way to avoid a sweep.

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