Nick Lodolo's Struggles Raise a Tough Question for the Reds

The Cincinnati Reds have dealt with their share of injuries to starting pitchers over the last few seasons, and Nick Lodolo has been one of them. With one more season of team control, did the Reds miss their maximum trade value of the 28-year-old?

Was 2025 The Best of Lodolo in Cincinnati?

Nick Lodolo Jose Trevin — Jul 23, 2025; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo (40) is congratulated by catcher Jose Trevino (35) after throwing a complete game shutout against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-Imagn Images | Brad Mills-Imagn Images

Like Hunter Greene, Lodolo has dealt with a litany of injuries over his career to this point. Calf injuries, back injuries, a groin strain, and blisters that have become a recurring issue have limited him from becoming an ace in the Reds' rotation. Blisters caused him to miss the start of this season; he made his season debut in activated from the injured list on May 8 after a blister appeared in his final Spring Training appearance. He has flashed greatness from time to time, to where he can be the 1a of the staff when Hunter Greene is also active. Last season was the first time in his career where he did not miss extended time with injuries, and he was excellent.

He started 28 games and reached a career high in innings, a career-best ERA, a near career-best in batting average against, a career high in strikeouts, and walked fewer batters than the season before in more appearances while also tossing his first career complete game shutout against the Washington Nationals in July. The expectations were very high going into the 2026 season after the body of work he displayed the season prior. Unfortunately, this season hasn't been what he nor the Reds had expected.

Did The Reds Miss The Window To Move Lodolo?

Jun 12, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Reds pitcher Nick Lodolo (40) walks to the dugout during the game against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the fourth inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images | Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

In eight starts this season, Lodolo has just two wins in six starts with a 6.12 ERA. His advanced metrics are way down also. His pitching run value has fallen from the 59th percentile to the 14th, his xERA fell from the fourth to the 73rd percentile, xBA fell from the 22nd percentile to the 68th percentile, and his walk percentage has fallen from the 47th percentile to the 95th percentile. His strikeout percentage is more eye-catching. He was in the 17th percentile in strikeout percentage in 2025, that has decreased to the 62nd percentile.

Overall, he's walking more batters and striking out less on average and allowing more contact, that begs the question; did the Reds miss out by not trying to sell high on Lodolo? That's easy to say in hindsight, but they may have missed the best window to make a move with how he has performed this season.

At the trade deadline in 2025, Hunter Greene was still a few weeks away from returning from the injured list. Rhett Lowder was injured and rehabbing with Triple-A Louisville. Chase Burns had only made a handful of starts. Carson Spiers was placed on the injured list, and Brandon Williamson was less than a year removed from Tommy John surgery. They actually had to add starting pitching at the trade deadline to help with their playoff push while waiting for Greene to return.

There's still a long way to go. If Lodolo can get back on track and also remain healthy, he can regain the value he has lost to start the season and also give the Reds a chance in hopes of making a late run at the playoffs.

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