Reds Prospect is Tearing Up Triple-A, But There Are Reasons to Be Cautious

The Reds' offense has not been good enough this season, especially from their outfield. Outfield prospect Hector Rodriguez is making plenty of noise in Triple-A Louisville and fans have been begging for him to be called up. Based on the numbers alone, it's easy to see why fans are excited and what he could eventually bring to the big league lineup.

In 101 games with the Bats, Rodriguez is slashing .270/.346/.528 with 45 extra-base hits, including 26 home runs. However, as impressive as the production has been, there are still some underlying numbers that should make Reds fans cautious about expecting immediate success at the Major League level.

The biggest concern, like we've seen with Edwin Arroyo, Noelvi Marte, Rece Hinds, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and others, is his plate discipline. His chase rate has improved dramatically, but he is still swinging at nearly 36% of pitches outside the strike zone this season. That is down from 46.2% in Triple-A last year, which is certainly encouraging, but big league pitchers are much better at identifying and attacking weaknesses.

Take Edwin Arroyo for example. In 53 games with Louisville, Arroyo was slashing .323/.383/.562 with 25 extra-base hits, including 11 home runs. However, he was chasing almost 38% of the time. When he got called up, pitchers knew how to attack him and his power was zapped. In 44 games with the Reds, Arroyo didn't hit a single home run, had only four extra-base hits, and walked just over three percent of the time. This is what I am worried about with Rodriguez. He needs to continue to refine his approach and make pitchers come inside the strike zone.

Now, let's look at Noelvi Marte. In 40 games with Triple-A Louisville, Marte slashed .369/.409/.575 with 16 extra-base hits. However, there was one concerning number underneath all of that production: he was chasing 37% of pitches outside of the strike zone.

That aggressive approach has followed him to the big leagues. Marte has continued to chase pitches outside of the zone and is slashing just .186/.230/.340 while walking only 5.5% of the time.

Arroyo and Marte are two perfect examples of why dominating Triple-A doesn't always mean that success will immediately translate to the Major League level. That's why Rodriguez's plate discipline is something worth watching, regardless of how impressive the rest of his numbers look right now.

None of this means Rodriguez can't become a productive Major League hitter. In fact, the improvements he's already made are extremely encouraging. However, we've seen firsthand with Arroyo, Marte. and others how quickly Major League pitchers can expose an aggressive approach. Rodriguez has the talent and power to make an impact in Cincinnati, but continuing to improve his plate discipline could ultimately determine just how much of that production translates to the next level.

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