Reds Veteran Projected to Sign 2-Year, $25M Deal if He Opts Out of Player Option

The Reds need to make some big decisions with their free agents this offseason.

Sep 24, 2026; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Cincinnati Reds pitcher Emilio Pagan (15) and catcher Tyler Stephenson (37) react after the Reds defeated the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Cincinnati Reds didn't finish the season the way they would have liked. They didn't really contend for the postseason after a wild run to October in 2025. As a result, they have to go back to the drawing board this winter if they want to fight for a spot in the postseason.

There are a few big decisions the Reds will need to make with free agent players like Eugenio Suárez and Tyler Stephenson, but their offseason could get a bit more hectic if their closer, Emilio Pagan, opts out of his player option. Pagan finished the season very strong and has a case to land a bigger contract if he decides to hit the open market this offseason.

Spotrac recently projected that Pagan would sign a solid two-year, $25 million deal if he decides to opt out of his player option this offseason.

Emilio Pagan Could Opt Out and Sign a Solid Deal

Cincinnati Reds pitcher Emilio Pagán (15) cheers after striking out Tommy White for the final out of the ninth inning of the MLB Interleague game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Athletics at Great American Ball Park in downtown Cincinnati on Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026 The Reds won the second game of the series, 3-2. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Pagan had a tough stretch of games early in the year, and it impacted the way he was viewed by many fans. In reality, he was better than many expected him to be. This year, he was worth 1.3 WAR, which is near his WAR from his tremendous 2025 season. Pagan held a 3.38 ERA in 45 appearances, which includes a 1.71 ERA in his final 27 appearances during the second half of the season. Over the final few months, Pagan wasn't just solid. He was tremendous.

As a result, opting out might be his best option, and it wouldn't be shocking to see him land a deal worth around $10 million to $15 million per season. This would put the Reds in a very tough position.

If they let him walk, they'd be going into next season without a solidified closer. The market favors the closers, as they typically land big deals. Even the short-term deals are solid for relief pitchers. But the Reds might struggle to spend $15 million a year of their budget on a relief guy.

All of this revolves around the idea of Pagan opting out of his player option. If he is confident that he can land a deal worth more than $10 million a year, opting out is the right call. The Reds might be better off if he stays in Cincinnati on his player option.

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