Struggling Cincinnati Reds Infielder is MLB's Unluckiest Player in 2026

Cincinnati Reds third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes didn't get off to a good start this year, going 1-for-12 in March. He picked up two hits early in April to bring his batting average to .130, which isn't great, but it was still very early in the season. Since April 6, Hayes has gone hitless in 21 consecutive at-bats, bringing his season total to 3-for-44 with one run scored and a slash line of .068/.146/.068.

Manager Terry Francona has his own ideas on how to get Hayes out of this slump.

"The guys were pretty good last night. They were pretty good," Francona said, via Reds reporter Charlie Goldsmith. "Trevino said something about getting a chicken and having it sacrificed. I told him if we need to, we'll get a human. We'll find somebody."

While Francona is only joking, hopefully, the Reds need to find a way to get Hayes going. While there are some aspects of Hayes' game that need to be tweaked right now, the harsh reality is that he's simply been unlucky.

Ke'Bryan Hayes is the Unluckiest Player in the League This Season

Cincinnati Reds third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes (3) catches a fly ball in the fifth inning between the Cincinnati Reds and Boston Red Sox at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati on Saturday, March 28, 2026. | Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

If I said that Hayes was hitting .267 with a .445 slugging percentage, I'm sure most Reds fans would be elated at that kind of production from a superstar defender. But these aren't his stats. They're his expected stats, per Baseball Savant, which means given the quality of contact, launch angle, exit velocity, etc, Hayes is expected to be posting numbers like these, which are far better than any expected numbers he's posted since his rookie season.

Hayes' xwOBA is almost 200 points lower than his actual wOBA, which is the biggest drop off in the entire league. His luck has taken a hitter who's slightly below average and made him the worst-producing hitter in the game.

Hayes' xwOBA is higher than Pete Alonso's xwOBA. His xBA is higher than Jacob Wilson's, and Wilson was threatening a season batting average of .350 for most of last season. Hayes' xSLG is higher than Bobby Witt Jr.'s. He has a higher barrel rate than Manny Machado and a higher exit velocity than Junior Caminero.

Yes, these expected stats are only projections based on the batted ball contact, and baseball is a results-driven game, but it's impossible to deny how unlucky Hayes has been. Tuning into any Reds game will likely produce at least one of Hayes' at-bats ending in a warning track fly ball or a smoked line drive right at somebody.

For reference, Hayes recently blistered a ball into right field for a hit, but since the base runner had to see if it was caught first, the end result was a fielder's choice after the base runner was thrown out at second base.

Hayes' production should turn around in the near future. He's playing too good of defense at third base to move him. If he were striking out a lot and making a lot of soft contact, the Reds might be on the verge of cutting him. But he's hitting the ball hard. Sometimes, luck doesn't fall in his way.

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