Ezequiel Tovar's Offensive Decline Is Becoming a Serious Problem for the Rockies

A .617 OPS is an ugly number for just about any hitter in Major League Baseball. For a Colorado Rockies infielder who plays half his games at Coors Field and is under contract through 2030, it’s difficult to stomach, to say the least.

Ezequiel Tovar finished 2026 hitting .219/.264/.353 with 13 home runs and 44 RBIs. That was a steep decline for somebody who once looked like one of the most promising players on a team that didn't have many established reasons for optimism.

Colorado committed $63.5 million to Tovar in March 2024, keeping him under contract through 2030 with a team option for 2031. The decision made sense. He had established himself as an exciting young shortstop with a terrific glove, and the Rockies believed his offense would continue improving.

His performance later that season only strengthened their confidence. Tovar hit .269 with 26 home runs and 78 RBIs in 2024, numbers that suggested Colorado might have secured one of its most important players at a rather reasonable price.

Two years later, however, that optimism seems considerably less justified.

The Advanced Numbers Tell a Different Story

Colorado Rockies infielder Ezequiel Tovar. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Even during Tovar's impressive 2024 campaign, the underlying numbers were hardly spectacular. His OPS+ was exactly 100, meaning his offensive production was league average after accounting for ballpark and run environment.

He hasn't topped that mark in any full major league season. In 2023, he posted an OPS+ of 79. That number improved to 83 in 2025 before collapsing to 60 in 2026.

For a hitter whose home ballpark famously inflates offensive statistics, that's an uncomfortable collection of numbers. Tovar has certainly demonstrated offensive talent, but the advanced metrics suggest his actual production has been less impressive than traditional statistics might indicate.

The strikeouts haven’t helped, either. Tovar struck out 129 times against just 29 walks in 2026, continuing a troubling pattern of swing-and-miss issues that become damaging when the power disappears, as it did in 2026.

None of this means Tovar has been abjectly terrible. His defense at shortstop remains valuable, and he was good enough to win a Gold Glove in 2024. He also appeared in 146 games last season after injuries limited him to 95 the year before.

But the Rockies didn’t extend Tovar simply because they wanted a reliable defensive shortstop, although that certainly played a role. They believed he could become one of the most productive players on a roster that desperately needed young talent.

Tovar is only 25, and his 2024 campaign demonstrated that he possesses legitimate offensive ability. There’s still reason to believe he could rediscover some of that production, particularly in an offensive environment as friendly as Denver's.

The more concerning possibility, however, is that 2024 was the exception rather than the standard. His advanced numbers have suggested that for quite some time, and his miserable 2026 season gave Colorado plenty of reasons to reconsider what it should expect from him.

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