Kevin McGonigle Is On Pace for the Greatest Under-21 Debut Year Ever

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The National League Rookie of the Year race is going down to the wire. WAR favorite JJ Wetherholt of the Cardinals, run producing specialist Sal Stewart of the Reds and do-everything outfielder Carson Benge all bring different arguments. But too many people overlook Mets righthander Nolan McLean, whose volume and efficiency are rare in today’s world. McLean is on track to become only the third rookie in the divisional era (58 seasons) with 30 starts, 200 strikeouts and a sub-3.25 ERA. The other two each won the ROY: Dwight Gooden in 1984 and John Montefusco in 1975.

The AL ROY race has less drama. Kevin McGonigle is pulling away from Munetaka Murakami, Parker Messick and Peyton Tolle, all of whom are having great seasons. McGonigle’s season is bordering on historic.

With a month still to play, McGonigle has the sixth highest WAR among U-21 first-year players—with a chance to pass Ted Williams, Albert Pujols and Frank Robinson as having the greatest debut of a player so young. (Editor’s note: This does not include rookies who debuted a previous year but not did surpass rookie plate appearance thresholds.)

Highest bWAR, First-Year U-21 Players

Player	bWAR
1. Ted Williams, 1939	6.6
1. Albert Pujols, 2001	6.6
1. Frank Robinson, 1956	6.6
4. Jason Heyward, 2010	6.4
5. Julio Rodriguez, 2022	6.2
6. Kevin McGonigle, 2026	6.0

McGonigle’s versatility, defense, baserunning and hit tools are obvious. So, I asked Tigers manager A.J. Hinch, “What do you see being around him every day that we don’t see?” The answer was even more laudatory than I expected.

“I think the thing that's a little unknown, because you guys aren't behind the scenes, is the plan—the game plan for him,” Hinch says. “Kevin's really good at creating a plan and going and executing it. It's not just results. It's the front end of that. Like, this guy will see small, subtle movements [from a pitcher] that aren't the same.

“Let's say a guy has normal 17 vert and he starts throwing one that's 20. He'll notice it before the scoreboard does. Or a guy's cutter is cutting more, or a guy's changeup is bottoming out as opposed to fading. That to me has been a ‘wow’ moment where he can see stuff that other hitters don't. Even other accomplished hitters.

“That’s so impressive for a 21-year-old kid. The problem is, if there is a problem with Kevin, is that he's so determined to beat them at what they're trying to do. I've joked with Kevin. I've moved him out of the leadoff spot and I'm like, ‘Because the first pitch of the game is up and away, you fly out to left.’ And so for three days he was so irritated with me. And then he smoked a ball up and away. He just stares at me from first base. He takes his gloves off and gets all mad. That's Kevin McGonigle. He's going to try to beat you at something that you're trying to do to him. He doesn't cower down.”

And then Hinch adds the kicker.

“He is like a combo of [Alex] Bregman and [Chase] Utley. The game planning and the way he knows what the pitcher is doing is like Bregman. And the grit of Chase. I played with one and managed the other. I hate doing that to him because I don't want to feed his ego. But I do love that he's uber-prepared and uber-competitive at the same time.”

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