Breaking Down MLB’s Rookie of the Year Races Heading Into September

Here are the favorites, contenders and dark horses for the AL and NL Rookie of the Year awards as the final month of the season gets underway.

Sal Stewart leads the majors with 105 RBIs. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The 2026 MLB season is approaching its end, which means award races are heating up. One race that should attract plenty of attention as the campaign winds down is the competition for the Rookie of the Year award, particularly in the National League where there are still a few players within reach of claiming the honor.

As September baseball gets underway, here’s where things stand in the Rookie of the Year races, with favorite, contender and dark horse tiers in both leagues.

American League Rookie of the Year

Frontrunner: Kevin McGonigle, Tigers

Tigers infielder Kevin McGonigle is the favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

McGonigle had such a good start to his career that he got a $150 million extension 17 days into this season, and he’s the heavy favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year heading into the final month of the campaign. The 2026 All-Star has split time between shortstop and third base, and has played solid defensively while manning both positions. At the plate, he’s slashing .274/.375/.415 (.789 OPS), and has 14 home runs, 58 RBIs and 12 stolen bases.

What’s most impressive about his prowess in the batter’s box is his plate discipline. During his rookie season, McGonigle has drawn 81 walks (tops among rookies) and has struck out just 82 times. He’s racked up 4.6 fWAR thus far into the season, the most among any rookie in the league, and eighth-most among all position players.

All that said, McGonigle tailed off a bit in August (.697 OPS) and his counting numbers are far from eye-popping, so the door is not yet closed for another contender to burst through it in September.

Contenders: Munetaka Murakami, White Sox; Parker Messick, Guardians

Parker Messick has enjoyed an excellent rookie season with the Guardians. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

If Munetaka Murakami hadn’t missed a month with a hamstring injury, he’d likely be the favorite after a historic start to the season. He hit a record 20 home runs by the end of May before landing on the IL. He’s not much of a contact hitter, batting just .217 on the year, but he has effortless power at the plate and can hit to all areas of the field.

Murakami has 29 home runs, a .855 OPS and 138 wRC+ this season, all of which rank first among AL rookies, and the 26-year-old has erased any doubts that the power he showcased in Japan wouldn’t translate to the majors.

Parker Messick got his first taste of MLB action last year and impressed, and he’s been even better in 2026. The Guardians starter has made 27 starts and owns a 2.46 ERA (3.05 FIP) with 161 strikeouts against 43 walks in 161 innings. The burly southpaw induces plenty of ground balls on the mound and doesn’t walk a lot of batters, either. He has great command of his pitches and has several different offerings in his arsenal, which help him remain effective against both righties and lefties.

Messick’s 4.6 fWAR is top among all rookie pitchers, and if anyone’s going to challenge McGonigle for the AL Rookie of the Year award, it’s probably the only rookie hurler to be selected to this year’s All-Star Game.

Dark horse candidate: Payton Tolle, Red Sox

Payton Tolle has a 3.23 ERA for the Red Sox. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Another southpaw who deserves recognition is Red Sox lefty Payton Tolle, who’s been excellent across 23 starts, logging a 3.23 ERA with 147 strikeouts and 37 walks in 131 innings. Tolle doesn’t mix speeds very much on the mound, but he’s effective at using a variety of fastballs, including a four-seamer, a sinker and a cutter. He leans heavily on those pitches, utilizing them 88% of the time, in what’s been a highly successful formula for him.

Perhaps Tolle’s biggest weapon on the mound is his size. At 6'6", he’s able to get exceptional extension (ranking in the 98th percentile, per Baseball Savant), which makes it harder for opposing hitters to pick up on his pitches until it’s too late.

Honorable mentions: Tristan Peters, White Sox OF; Chase DeLauter, Guardians OF; Kazuma Okamoto, Blue Jays 3B

National League Rookie of the Year

Frontrunner: Sal Stewart, Reds

Sal Stewart has 31 home runs and 105 RBIs entering September. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Sal Stewart has dominated at the plate during his rookie season, and currently leads MLB with 105 RBIs. No rookie has led the league in RBIs since 1950, so Stewart could make some pretty impressive history if he continues his torrid run at the plate.

Through 138 games, the 22-year-old is slashing .266/.337/.489 with 31 home runs, 25 doubles and 12 stolen bases. Stewart’s 31 homers are the second most by a Reds rookie in franchise history, trailing only Frank Robinson, who hit 38 in 1956. The only other rookie in MLB history with at least 30 home runs, 100 RBIs, 25 doubles and 10 stolen bases is José Canseco (1986), who was named the AL Rookie of the Year for the A’s.

Stewart is a serviceable defender at first base, but it’s his bat that separates him from the rest of the rookie class, and will likely result in him becoming the first Red to win Rookie of the Year since Jonathan India in 2021.

Contenders: JJ Wetherholt, Cardinals; Nolan McLean, Mets

JJ Wetherholt has been one of MLB’s best defensive players during his rookie season for the Cardinals. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

A late wrist injury may cost JJ Wetherholt a chance at the Rookie of the Year award. The Cardinals’ second baseman and leadoff hitter has been excellent in 2026, particularly defensively. Wetherholt ranks third in MLB in defensive runs saved (16) and outs above average (22), trailing only Bobby Witt Jr. and Pete Crow-Armstrong in both categories. That’s helped him rank first among NL rookies in fWAR (4.4).

At the plate, he’s been solid. The 23-year-old has 17 home runs, 48 RBIs and 14 steals, while logging a .713 OPS, though his 104 wRC+ indicates he’s merely been a touch above average at the plate due to a lack of extra-base hits. He’s got excellent plate discipline for a rookie, though, boasting a 10.8% walk rate and a 16.2% strikeout rate, both of which are better than league average.

As for McLean, he’s been on a tear during the second half. McLean logged a 3.52 ERA across his first 19 starts this year, but has a 2.05 ERA in his last eight outings. Overall, he’s pitching to a 3.06 ERA with 172 strikeouts in 155 2/3 innings. He sometimes struggles with control, resulting in a high walk rate (3.53 BB/9) compared to other top starters, but he makes up for that with excellent strikeout stuff. McLean throws a devastating sinker and curveball, thanks to his exceptional spin rate which results in tremendous late break on both pitches.

Aside a shaky May in which he recorded a 6.10 ERA, McLean has been otherwise terrific and has now surrendered two or fewer runs in 14 of his last 16 outings.

Dark horse candidate: Carson Benge, Mets

Carson Benge has been one of the Mets’ few bright spots in the 2026 season. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Benge has been one of the few reliable position players for the Mets this season, having appeared in 132 games. He owns a .757 OPS with 16 home runs, 54 RBIs and 19 stolen bases, the combination of which no other rookie can match.

He’s improved his play in the second half of the campaign, too, adapting quickly to MLB pitching. In 38 games during the second half, Benge is batting .308 with a .824 OPS. He’s a long shot to surpass Stewart, or even Wetherholt and McLean, but he’s certainly deserving of some recognition for a quality rookie season on a team that’s fallen well below expectations.

Honorable mentions: Foster Griffin, Nationals SP; TJ Rumfield, Rockies 1B

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