Detroit Tigers Given Shockingly Low Chance To Make Playoffs This Season

The same reasons people are excited about the Detroit Tigers provide some pause as well.

Detroit Tigers catcher Jake Rogers, center, and infielder Trey Sweeney walk towards the field for practice during spring training at TigerTown in Lakeland, Fla. on Monday, Feb. 17, 2025. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

What the Detroit Tigers were able to accomplish in the second half of the 2024 regular season was one of the most impressive feats in MLB history.

Despite being sellers at the deadline and facing a double-digit deficit in the standings, they overcame the odds and earned a spot in the playoffs as a Wild Card team.

After defeating the Houston Astros in the ALWC, they pushed the Cleveland Guardians to five games in the ALDS but fell short and were eliminated.

Their magic ride had come to an end, but things were just getting started for the Tigers, as the front office knew what needed to be done to continue the positive momentum that had been built up.

“Despite declining to make a splash this offseason, Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris managed to carry the good vibes from October into the spring,” wrote Stephen J. Nesbitt of The Athletic (subscription required) in their preseason MLB power rankings piece.

Reinforcements were needed on the pitching staff behind American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal. Down the stretch he was the only starter manager A.J. Hinch was turning to, opting for bullpen games or an opener with a bulk inning pitcher behind them.

Jake Flaherty was brought back after being traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers ahead of the deadline. Veteran Alex Cobb was also signed, but is dealing with an injury already.

The emergence of Casey Mize in the spring along with Reese Olson, Keider Montero, Kenta Maeda and star prospect Jackson Jobe gives the team a lot of depth and options to work with in the rotation.

Where Detroit may have fallen short this past winter was finding some more upgrades for the lineup.

Gleyber Torres was their only addition, taking over at second base.

That wasn’t a position of need with Colt Keith already occupying it, but he will now shift over to first base, moving Spencer Torkelson out of the starting mix.

Their youth is a double-edged sword.

It is what makes the Tigers so intriguing heading into the campaign, but also why there is cause for concern.

“The kids are here and ready to play. The oldest hitters in the Tigers’ projected lineup are 29-year-old Jake Rogers and 28-year-old Gleyber Torres; six regulars are 25 or younger. That’s a lot of unproven bats and upside,” Nesbitt added.

One of the players who will be counted on to carry the offensive produciton is Kerry Carpenter, the team's X-factor this year.

Left fielder Riley Greene has MVP-caliber talent in the eyes of some evaluators as well.

But, because of the uncertainty, it shouldn’t be much of a surprise that Detroit is right near the middle of the power rankings, slightly below average.

They are in a tie for 16th with their AL Central rivals, the Minnesota Twins.

But, there is a drastic difference in their projected playoff odds.

While Detroit is at only 29.9%, the Twins are at 62.0%, which is by far the highest in the division.

The Tigers even have lower odds than the Kansas City Royals, who are in 19th with 46.8%. But, they are higher than last year’s division champions, the Guardians, who come in at No. 21 and have a 29.7% chance of making the postseason.

Bringing up the rear in the rankings is the Chicago White Sox with a 0.3% chance of advancing to the playoffs.