Twins Have a Rotation Problem With No Clear Ace to Solve It

Without Joe Ryan, Minnesota needs its starters to find stability before their problems become a bigger obstacle.

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Zebby Matthews (52). Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Minnesota Twins starters have entered into too many inconsistencies at a key moment within the race to obtain a spot in the Wild Card. In the last 30 days, they have pitched for a 5.06 ERA, the third-worst ERA in the American League.

An interesting point here within the chaos is that the starters are going deep, with the third-best innings average (5 ⅓) per starts. However, most of the starters continue to be vulnerable to hard contact, allowing a high BABIP, which leads us to a bigger problem.

But that is only part of the problem, since there are some even more concerning results: the Twins have allowed the lowest LOB% rate (66.3).

What does this mean? That all the inconsistencies to stop opposing lineups continue deriving in a high rate of batters who manage to get on base and score. Even though pitchers often get into trouble, if the defense helps or the pitchers manage to get the outs at key moments, then the LOB% rate is going to reflect a different result.

Question Chasing Twins Lineup

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Dean Kremer (13). Mandatory Credit: David Frerker-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Look, there is a big question that has been haunting this rotation since Joe Ryan entered the injured list. Who should be the leader now?

As much as we try to be optimistic, there is no pitcher as consistent as Ryan. In terms of talent, it should be Taj Bradley. If it is about veteran status in the clubhouse, then Bailey Ober is supposed to be the man called to take the step. Neither of them has been pitching all that well.

Then, there are details that surprise, since Dean Kremer and Zebby Matthews have been the most stable pitchers in this latest stretch so far.

Statcast

Kremer has had his best performances of the year since he joined the Twins at the trade deadline. His 0.4 fWAR and the 3.98 xFIP in the last four starts of this month brought a little relief, and he has averaged more than five innings.

Some of the best things are that Kremer is adjusting his velocity, which at times seems to recover, and the cutter has once again become one of his best pitches. From one year to another, when it seemed irrecoverable, he is generating a 40.0 whiff% rate, almost double last year with the Orioles (24.2%).

I love the best version of Bradley. He has a lot of potential and a velocity that can wreak havoc, but when he cannot put opponents against the ropes, it is very difficult for him to manage to generate ground balls with the other things in his repertoire.

Hitters have averaged 1.01 HR/9 against him in his last five starts, and a high .333 BABIP for a pitcher who sustains 97 mph as an average on his fastball.

The situation of Ober is the same: he can barely strike out. He is too vulnerable to contact, and that means a bigger problem when you cannot strike out.

He is walking few batters, but when opponents reach base for some reason, he also cannot avoid hard contact with consistency. Stay with this revealing metric: the Twins starters are limiting contact to the opposition at 76.2%. Ober? He allows 80.6%, while appearing in the 9th percentile in strikeouts, 10th in barrels allowed and 11th in whiffs.

I think Matthews can be much better and, hopefully, this 4-0 streak in five starts becomes more of a turning point than a highlight. He is striking out with a great frequency, has the best K/BB rate (6.8) of the group, but there is a big problem that can be seen through his 20.0 HR/FB% rate. Hitters still destroy his mistakes with relentless power. Matthews has allowed at least one home run with each of his six pitch types this year. Five against the four-seam fastball and the slider, respectively, and at least multiple home runs against all the pitches except the slider.

Connor Prielipp has had most of the problems. His strikeout rate has taken a very interesting jump, and he is getting his opponents to hit ground balls. But there is a concerning alert: his 21.7 HR/FB% rate is the highest allowed for any pitcher on the staff. From the improvements with .290 xSLG allowed in July, the opposition has averaged .622 this month.

The challenge is laid out: if the Twins still want to aspire to reach the postseason, it is already time to make adjustments.