Twins May Have to Rethink Alan Roden's Place in Their Future

Small samples almost always lead us to big questions, especially when it comes to players from whom an explosion of their talent is expected. Alan Roden, of the Minnesota Twins, was the No. 5 prospect for the Blue Jays and fits perfectly into that group.

His power numbers do not suggest that he has found a new offensive dimension, but there is a little more to see in them. Since the All-Star break, he has an ISO of .111 and a slugging percentage of .413.

Those are big improvements if we remember that he went through the first half of the season without hitting an extra-base hit in his 16 plate appearances. He is now hitting .302/.378/.413 with a 125 wRC+ in 75 plate appearances since the All-Star break.

The Renewed Approach Drove the Change Before the Results

Minnesota Twins right fielder Alan Roden (18). Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

If we stick with the small-sample results, it looks like a hot streak. And, look, it is reasonable. There are not many hitters who have been able to sustain a batting average over .300 with more than 500 at-bats. But if we look a little further, some interesting points appear that are making the needle move positively in Roden’s swing.

To begin, in the second half his O-Swing% fell from 34.3% to 25.4%, while overall contact increased to 87.3% and he reduced his SwStr% to 5.7%. At the same time, his strikeout rate dropped to 12% and his contact in the zone went from 89.5% to 93%.

So it is clear that he is attacking better pitches, has produced better contact and has had fewer misses. But we still have not reached the key point, which is his impressive adjustment to raise his Pull rate from 9.1% to 40.4%.

Alan Roden spray chart | Baseball savant

Literally, Roden is trying to pull everything! And that, for now, is going great. His ISO brings us closer to the improvement in the results, as he averages .174 when he manages to pull, while it drops to .053 when he hits toward the center and .087 toward the opposite field.

So, the results started to show as he sustained those adjustments. In July, Roden produced a .494 OPS and a 46 wRC+ in 45 plate appearances. In August, the OPS rose to .858 and the wRC+ to 141. But even there it is worth looking beyond the result, since he also reduced his strikeouts to 11.8%, while maintaining an 11.8% BB% and taking his overall contact up to 86.8%.

But there is still another part of the story that the Twins will have to keep in perspective. Roden is having very different results depending on the pitcher’s handedness. Against right-handers he has an 84 wRC+ and a .233/.333/.300 slash line and, what could have been anticipated as a problem, has been the exact opposite, as he is hitting .471/.500/.647 with a 229 wRC+ against left-handers in his first 19 plate appearances.

The difference is too big to claim that, with that sample alone, Roden will be a devourer of left-handed pitchers, but he is making solid contact within the strike zone, especially when left-handed pitchers try to attack him with pitches close to him.

That is where Roden is showing a glimpse of the potential of his swing, increasing his bat speed and being more aggressive against left-handed pitchers. His .538 BABIP is as extreme now as it is unsustainable in the future, but if he can hit left-handers and, especially, produce hard-hit balls, it will be a good step toward earning more opportunities in Minnesota’s lineup.

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