Twins Still Have a Path to Playoffs, But Margin for Error Is Gone

The Minnesota Twins have used up all their free passes, and now, every inning could shape their future. There is no room for error, no resetting; it is time to win, and even then, it is entirely possible that they do not control their own destiny.

The days of playing average baseball or just sneaking by with wins are over. The wins have to add up.

Minnesota is coming into Friday with a 69-77 record and sitting 4.5 games behind the Cleveland Guardians for the final American League Wild Card spot. Toronto, Texas and Baltimore are all also in position between the Twins and Cleveland.

This is a crowded race that will leave absolutely no room for error if the Twins hope to have any chance at seeing the playoffs in person rather than watching on television.

With all that said, though, the Twins aren’t finished. There is a chance (even if it is a long shot).

With 16 games in the regular season remaining for the team, Minnesota’s schedule at least gives them a chance. Starting on Friday, one could argue the Twins are walking into the most important games of the season.

Cleveland is coming into Target Field to start a three-game series. After that, Minnesota will host the New York Yankees for three before heading out on a seven-game road trip against the Los Angeles Angels and San Francisco Giants. Should everything go really well, it will come down to the final three games against the Texas Rangers at Target Field to finish the season.

That means six of Minnesota’s final 16 games are against two of the teams they are trying to chase down.

Twins Must Take Advantage of Guardians Series

Minnesota Twins shortstop Brooks Lee (22) celebrates with second baseman Luke Keaschall (15) after the Twins beat the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The next three games the Twins play may be the most important.

Cleveland is entering the series 74-73, holding onto the final Wild Card position. Minnesota is 4.5 games back.

A Twins sweep wouldn’t even erase the deficit, but it would take a big chunk out of it, from 4.5 games to just 1.5, which would seem a lot more manageable at this point.

Even just winning two of the three would help.

This matters so much because after Cleveland leaves town, their schedule seems favorable. The Guardians will finish their year against the White Sox, Athletics, Red Sox and Royals.

Minnesota can’t leave its playoff chance in the hands of the Guardians, hoping they will stumble in the final stretch.

The Twins need to force the door open themselves and win in this upcoming series.

How Many Wins Will Minnesota Need?

Minnesota Twins left fielder Trevor Larnach (9) tries to make the play on the double hit by Chicago White Sox left fielder Sam Antonacci (17) during the first inning at Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This is the question of the year because there really is no clear-cut answer here. There are so many teams involved and variables that could change the story that it would just be a guess.

Some simple math shows just how hard the Twins have made it though. The following finishes in the last 16 games would produce these records:

11-5 finish: 80-82
12-4 finish: 81-81
13-3 finish: 82-80

Under normal circumstances, an 11-5 finish would be spectacular. This year, however, it may not be good enough. In fact, all hope aside, it probably is not enough to get them to the postseason.

Cleveland would only have to finish their year 7-8 to reach 81 wins. Toronto would reach 81 with an 8-7 finish. Texas would have to work a little harder and get nine wins, and Baltimore would need 10.

It seems like 82 wins would be the number that would give Minnesota the best chance, but even then, it isn’t a sure bet.

Twins Must Treat Every Game Like Playoffs

A full moon rises over the Minnesota Twins logo Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports | USA TODAY Sports

If there is a silver lining here, it is that Minnesota can control some of the outcome and is not just waiting to see what other teams do. They are going to face some of the teams they are trying to catch, and this gives them the opportunity to hand some losses out.

It, of course, also gives them the chance to lose and fall farther behind.

There is a path, albeit a very narrow one, but there is a path.

Should Minnesota have anything that resembles a losing streak, the season is over.

Win now, or simply start looking to 2027. Those are the options, no more, no less. Win now.

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