How the Yankees Can Make a Luis Arráez Deal Work

The Luis Arráez discourse is one of the most exhausting ones in the baseball world. That is especially the case for any fantasy trades that have him headed to the New York Yankees.

Traditional baseball purists will yammer on about Arráez, comparing him to a Hall of Famer like Tony Gwynn for his ability to collect batting titles throughout his career. It's impressive, but he probably won't have a Cooperstown bust.

Then, more analytically minded fans and analysts will claim Arráez is overrated because of his lack of power. Those takes are usually in bad faith and come from someone looking to be a contrarian for contrarian's sake.

The fact is, Arráez's true value isn't that of a guy headed to Cooperstown. He also isn't some generic slap hitter, because if that were the case, any team could develop a player with his skill set. The truth about Arráez is that he is somewhere in the middle. That is still pretty awesome.

The only way a Luis Arráez trade works

As the infield stands, there isn't any room for Arráez. Barring injuries, the only way it makes sense is if the Yankees found a trade partner for Jazz Chisholm Jr., who is probably looking at his final season in pinstripes.

If there's a worthy trade partner for the Yankees that can send them a piece that can bring more value than Chisholm can in the remaining months he has before free agency, then an Arráez deal makes more sense. That's about it, though.

New York Yankees second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. (13) rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run during the second inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Yankee Stadium. | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Arráez gives the Yankees tremendous lineup depth

Those purists won't like this, but Arráez's best placement in the lineup probably isn't as a leadoff hitter. He owns a spectacular .354 On Base Percentage, but the issue with him is his walk rate. His 5% walk rate is in the 10th percentile in all of baseball. He has 16 walks in 321 plate appearances. On top of that, he only sees 3.607 pitches per plate appearance.

When you're hitting in front of Aaron Judge and Ben Rice, the leadoff hitter should be able to take as many pitches as possible, grinding down a starter, and having the two of them get as many looks as possible from the batter's box. This is why, as far as lineup construction goes, one through five in the order is adequate, and Arráez can hit anywhere after that, giving them a lethal dose of offensive depth they probably haven't had since that 2019 season.

Outside of that, Arráez's hit tool is phenomenal. This is why the takes against him always seem in bad faith. Who wouldn't want a player hitting .321/.354/.445?

On top of this, Arráez has some great numbers under the hood. His .285 expected batting average is in the 88th percentile. His 40.1% launch-angle sweet spot rate ranks in the 91st percentile. He has a 100th-percentile squared-up rate and an absurd 100th-percentile 4% strikeout rate.

The most underrated part of Arráez's game now is his defense. Statistically, he's actually an upgrade from Chisholm. Arráez has a 99th percentile 10 Out Above Average at second base. Chisholm, who is still great at fielding the position, has a 93rd-percentile 5 OAA.

San Francisco Giants second baseman Luis Arraez (1) waits to field the ball against the Atlanta Braves during the eighth inning at Truist Park. | Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images

It seems unlikely that the Yankees would trade Chisholm, then give up prospects for Arráez when they have more pressing matters on the roster. Still, he would make a big impact on the team if this improbable deal did go down.

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