Projecting Mason Miller-Yankees Trade: 3 Top 100 Prospects and a Young Starter

The San Diego Padres need to be blown away if they're going to deal Mason Miller, and the New York Yankees have a means to make that happen.

San Diego Padres pitcher Mason Miller (22) pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the ninth inning at Truist Park. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The last time the New York Yankees and San Diego Padres did business, Juan Soto came to the Bronx. Brian Cashman sent a slew of young, controllable pitchers to San Diego. This time around, with Mason Miller potentially available at the trade deadline, AJ Preller looks like he wants a similar trove of arms — albeit with the years of control Miller has, this deal would eclipse the Soto one by a mile in terms of value.

Everybody looks at the 46th-ranked baseball prospect by Baseball America's Top 100 prospects, George Lombard Jr., as a means to seal the deal, but Preller is not looking for shortstops. If the Yankees did need to offer one up, though, they could top a deal off with Dax Kilby. Kilby is the 61st-ranked prospect by BA's board.

Newnan High School infielder Dax Kilby during the Perfect Game National Showcase high school baseball game at Chase Field. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

As for pitching, the most important part of a Miller deal, other top 100 prospects they would likely need to include to land Miller are Elmer Rodriguez, the 59th-ranked prospect on BA's list, and Carlos Lagrange, who sits at 93. If three top 100 prospects aren't enough, then there is Will Warren, who, despite having an up-and-down start to his career, has shown flashes of excellence while still having a boatload of control.

Anybody who follows the Yankees too closely might scoff at the idea of Warren, but teams aren't looking at what has happened on random Tuesday starts in June. They're also not looking at the groans of a packed-out Yankee Stadium.

First, they're seeing that a 27-year-old pitcher has become a face of dependability in the Yankees' rotation. He takes the ball every 5th day.

Then there's the part of it that an owner would love. He is a cheap arm that is still two years away from arbitration and won't be a free agent until 2031. There are many years left in Warren's career for him to improve, and he's not half-bad now.

New York Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren (29) pitches against the Detroit Tigers during the second inning at Yankee Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

If the Yankees sent the Padres Kilby, Cruz, Lagrange, and Warren, that is technically 23 years of control for a pitcher who only comes out in the 9th inning and, in extreme situations, the 8th. On top of that, he would start becoming expensive soon. It's cool that he throws 104, but he is still just one pitcher, and a relief pitcher at that. His usage would be limited.

Miller is already in his first year of arbitration and will become increasingly expensive with each passing season. Also, while it would be great to have him until 2030, that's not nearly as many years of control as the Yankees would be handing over to Preller's Padres in this deal.

Blowing away the Padres

All the reports out there say the Padres need to be blown away. The Yankees are absolutely doing that with these four, and that's without even including Lombard.

The Seattle Mariners are one team that could accomplish a deal like this, but since he'll soon be expensive as he moves through arbitration, they may look away when it comes to trading cheap arms. Outside of Luis Castillo and Robinson Cano, they don't often brave the big-money waters and could avoid it even more, given a lockout is heading the sport's way next year, and money would be tight.

Another team that is usually in the mix for these deals is the Dodgers. The Padres aren't sending him there.

The Yankees unquestionably have a shot at doling out the biggest offer to San Diego. It's more years of control than they would probably be comfortable giving, but seeing as they're in every report linked to Miller, it could be a price they're willing to pay with Kilby, Lagrange, Cruz, and Warren.

It's 23 years of control vs. 3.5, but the result could be a championship, and you can't put a price on parades. Just ask the Knicks if sending five first-round picks was worth Mikal Bridges these days.