The Five Teams With the Most at Stake Entering the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery

As a very entertaining 2026 NBA playoffs continue to march on, the fate of the teams who aren’t participating in the postseason will be decided this weekend.

On May 10, the league will hold its annual NBA draft lottery. There has been loads of talk all season long about how to alter the lottery rules in order to disincentivize tanking, but any such changes would be instituted starting next year. For now the rules remain intact—the first 14 picks of the draft will be determined through a weighted lottery system that gives the best odds to the three worst teams from last season. Check out the full odds here.

Which, of course, makes it the most important part of the NBA offseason. The future of entire franchises shift with the results of the lottery. Last year provided one of the most extreme examples ever, when the Mavericks won the No. 1 pick despite a 1.8% chance to do so and got to pick Cooper Flagg to save the organization after the catastrophic Luka Dončić trade. The fates of many players hang in the balance, too. The lottery will determine where the best prospects will end up and what environment they will be stepping into as rookies.

It’s safe to say there is a lot at stake entering May 10. But there are a few teams with even more riding on this lottery than is standard.

Ahead of the 2026 NBA draft lottery, let’s set the scene by examining the five teams with the most at stake and a whole lot riding on how the ping-pong balls bounce.

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers were terrible this season after Tyrese Haliburton tore his Achilles in Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals. Indiana more or less accepted this was a gap year and a return to contention would come when Haliburton was fully recovered ahead of the 2026–27 season. However, the front office engaged in some seriously risky business at the trade deadline.

The Pacers traded their 2026 first-round pick for Clippers center Ivica Zubac in February. But that pick is protected for selections 1-4 and 10-30. What does that mean? If Indy’s lottery pick lands in the top four or outside the top 10, they will keep the pick. But if not, it goes to Los Angeles, which means the Pacers would have nothing to show for an abysmal 19–63 campaign.

Thanks to that terrible record Indy has a 14% chance to land the No. 1 pick and can’t fall further than sixth. Nevertheless, no one team has a greater range of outcomes than Indiana entering this draft lottery. The franchise will either add an elite talent in a loaded draft to a roster that will have its superstar back in action—or go without a pick entirely. We will probably be able to see the front office sweat through the TV while the picks are being announced.

Los Angeles Clippers

On the other side of the Pacers’ coin is the Clippers. L.A. would absolutely love to land a top-four pick in this draft after pivoting with an eye to the future this year in trading James Harden for Darius Garland. The front office gambled with the Zubac trade because the organization doesn’t have control over its own picks for several years yet thanks to the Paul George package from 2019. This is, by far, the best chance the Clippers will have to land a top-five lottery pick until 2030.

That kind of pick in this draft would be trajectory-changing for this franchise, too. Los Angeles clawed back after a truly horrendous start to the year and made the play-in tournament but don’t have a clear path to success with Kawhi Leonard’s time as a superstar player winding down. If the lottery balls bounce in such a way that it allows the Clippers to pick up the team’s first exciting young talent since Shai Gilgeious-Alexander, the organization has a North Star to guide them through the coming years. If not the front office will be back at square one in terms of figuring out how to position the organization for success post-Leonard.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Yep, it’s these guys again. Despite winning one NBA championship last year and possibly another waiting in June, the Thunder have another lottery pick. Why? Because they own the Clippers’ 2026 first-rounder. Los Angeles finished the year in ninth place and lost in the play-in tournament, which means its pick is most likely to land near the bottom in the 12-14 range. No matter where it lands it will belong to the Thunder thanks to the same aforementioned George trade that seems to pay endless dividends for OKC.

Unlike the previous two entries the Thunder aren’t going to be much worse off if things don’t break their way. Obviously. They already have a championship-caliber roster. But what if they win? The pick has a 1.5% chance of winding up No. 1, only a little bit worse than Dallas’s odds last year. The rich would get immeasurably richer. OKC could add superstar-caliber prospects like AJ Dybantsa or Darryn Peterson to become SGA’s future running mate. Or GM Sam Presti could shop the pick, adding even more assets to his dragon-like horde. Either scenario would lead to an enormous challenge for anybody hoping to knock the Thunder off the championship pedestal—and that’s already hard enough.

Atlanta Hawks

Thanks to a brilliant draft day trade last June, the Hawks own the Pelicans’ 2026 first-round pick after New Orleans finished with the seventh-worst record in the league. Odds are highest that it winds up a mid-lottery pick but there’s a 6.8% chance it ends at the top, which would be a coup for Atlanta. The franchise would love nothing more than to look back on a very successful regular season that saw a bunch of young guys take the next step, leading to a playoff appearance—and then get the No. 1 pick in the draft because of another team’s misfortune.

A current contender was built like this in Boston, when the Celtics picked Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum in back-to-back drafts despite deep playoff runs because they owned the Nets’ picks. With a solid core already in place of Jalen Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Dyson Daniels the Hawks are well-situated for the future no matter what. But adding another elite talent to that group could lead to a level of success Atlanta hasn’t seen in a decade. A new Eastern Conference powerhouse could be born on Sunday.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks would love nothing more than to earn a high lottery pick after bottoming out this season, going 32–50 while Giannis Antetokounmpo openly feuded with the franchise at large. Whether he winds up traded or signs an extension to stick around a few years more, this roster is barren of high-level talent. Worse, the organization is just about out of trade chips and assets after several years of aggressive moves to build around the Greek Freak. A fortuitous draw on Sunday would make for a boon through that lens, a way forward for Milwaukee that didn’t previously exist—whether the front office opts to use it to bring in a young prospect with an eye to the future or wield it in trade discussions.

But their situation is... complicated. The Bucks have the 10th-best odds to win the No. 1 pick—but if they do, the Hawks will be able to lay claim to it and Milwaukee will get New Orleans pick instead. But if the Pelicans’ pick finishes higher than the Bucks’ pick, Atlanta will stick with the New Orleans selection and Milwaukee will select wherever its own pick falls. For example:

If the lottery lands the Bucks pick at No. 1 and the Pelicans’ pick at No. 2, the Hawks will select No. 1 and the Bucks will select No. 2. But if the Pelicans land at No. 1 in the lottery and the Bucks land at No. 2, then the Hawks will select at No. 1 and the Bucks at No. 2. That’s the arrangement even if the picks land lower in the lottery—Milwaukee cannot pick higher than Atlanta, which means in the lottery Milwaukee cannot land a higher pick than New Orleans. Get it?

It’s understandable if not. But the simplest version possible is that the Bucks are guaranteed a lottery pick no matter what. How the lottery unfolds will determine just how high they can climb, which in course will be a significant factor in how the offseason plays out. It may even wind up determining whether the greatest athlete in modern Milwaukee history sticks around for the rest of his career.

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