The Sixers' Season Is at an Inflection Point. Here's the One Saving Grace.

If you had said, some six months ago, that the Sixers would be fighting to hang onto a guaranteed playoff spot in March, some corners of the NBA would've called that a successful season.

If you added the context that Joel Embiid had played just 33 of the team's first 63 games and Paul George unexpectedly received a 25-game suspension in the middle of the season, you'd have probably guessed that someone stepped up beyond expectations to help Tyrese Maxey keep this team above water.

If that player happened to be rookie VJ Edgecombe, you might've giggled with joy, excited about the team's future regardless of what Embiid and George had to offer.

But expectations change.

Embiid reeled off a stretch of consistent availability and inspiring play as 2025 transitioned to 2026. Between his recovery from offseason knee surgery and the time of the suspension, George had only missed games as part of the team's maintenance plan for back-to-backs. Maxey ascended from All-Star to All-NBA candidate.

Just when things began to get comfortable, the basketball gods decided that enough was enough.

Embiid is going to miss at least two weeks as he recovers from a right oblique strain. George still has two handfuls of games left on his suspension. Edgecombe is 'doubtful' for Saturday's game against the Atlanta Hawks with a lumbar contusion.

The Sixers, six games above .500, are clinging to percentage points for sixth place in the Eastern Conference as of Saturday morning. They will be short-handed against the Hawks, who have already won the season series and are sitting comfortably in the final Play-In spot.

Philadelphia's next three games after visiting Atlanta on Saturday? A visit with the Cleveland Cavaliers, who have hit a stride since trading for James Harden in February, on Monday before a flight home to host the lowly Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday.

Then they head to Detroit to face off against the East-leading Pistons on Thursday. Perhaps Edgecombe will be back by then. But the guy who has made their world go round for the last decade will not be.

Even if Embiid is back by next weekend, it'll be for a back-to-back. He will ostensibly miss one of those two games, just as he has all season. The back-to-back precedes a tour that starts with the Denver Nuggets, a team Embiid has not faced in their building since 2019. It will ease a bit after that.

It would not be the end of the Sixers' world to be in the Play-In tournament.

Objectively, they would have a fighting chance in a series against the Boston Celtics if they stay in the two seed. The biggest concern about falling to the Play-In would be the risk that they lose the first game, putting the Sixers between the end of their season and a first-round matchup with the East-leading Detroit Pistons.

Even if they were to make it out of the Play-In, having to play one or two games while their eventual matchup has a week off would leave the Sixers vulnerable to injury before the series even begins.

It would certainly behoove Philadelphia to earn that six seed in the conference. In theory, they have a chance to climb up to the five seed. They're only a game back of the Toronto Raptors. That possibility could be an aspiration or a threat, depending on how they compare potential matchups.

They will likely be considered underdogs in three of their next four games. Their season is teetering with Embiid expected to miss at least one more week with this oblique injury.

But there is one grace that very well may save them.

According to Tankathon, Philadelphia's remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .498. 16 teams have a more challenging remainder of the season.

They have one game left against the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Minnesota Timberwolves, Houston Rockets and Denver Nuggets.

That is balanced by one game each against the Sacramento Kings, Brooklyn Nets, Indiana Pacers, Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz and Grizzlies.

The big catch here?

There is one team currently headed for the Eastern Conference Play-In that has an easier schedule than the Sixers do: The Hawks.

The catch that branches off of that catch?

Atlanta is the team at the bottom of the Play-In.

In other words, the team with the most distance to climb to get out of the Play-In is the one that has the easiest schedule.

The team closest to the Sixers can't decide whether to adjust at halftime or simply play harder. If the Orlando Magic don't shoot themselves in the foot, games against Oklahoma City, Detroit, Boston, Los Angeles Lakers and two against Minnesota and Cleveland each might do the trick.

The Miami Heat don't quite have the stench the Magic have, but they do have two games against the Cavaliers and one each against the Lakers, Rockets, Celtics, Spurs and Pistons. It doesn't balance out that five of their final 19 are against the Wizards, Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks.

The next team in line may pose the biggest threat. Heck, the Charlotte Hornets may be the fifth best team in the East, only buoyed to the outside of the playoff picture by a poor start to the season.

Will their rampage continue, or will the Pistons, Spurs, Timberwolves and two meetings each with the Celtics, New York Knicks and Phoenix Suns put wind in their sails?

Who's to say?

It feels like the middle of the Eastern Conference standings have flipped and flopped for the better part of the last four months. The Sixers could drop to ninth place by Sunday morning. Or they could rise to fifth by Monday morning.

They will have some say in how the story of the next four games is written. But ultimately, without Embiid and George, there are disadvantages that they simply cannot control.

They may not have the material to stay above the Play-In line. The saving grace is that the teams trying to crash their party might not, either.