Peyton Watson only makes sense for the Milwaukee Bucks at the right price

The Milwaukee Bucks are among the teams with reported interest in adding Denver Nuggets free agent forward Peyton Watson via sign-and-trade. Watson is an intriguing young player, but Milwaukee should be careful not to overextend in acquiring him.

Watson just finished his rookie contract and is a restricted free agent, meaning Denver has the right to match any offer sheet he signs with an outside suitor. The Nuggets, facing a significant tax bill, seem stuck between wanting Watson and not wanting to go deep into the prohibitive luxury tax aprons in order to keep him.

It makes sense for Bucks general manager Jon Horst to stay in touch with the Nuggets in either Watson scenario — either to add him outright or to take on another Nuggets contract so Denver has tax breathing room to re-sign him. Getting compensated via picks to take on Christian Braun or Cameron Johnson could be a smart move for Milwaukee too.

On the adding Watson side, the Bucks having interest makes sense. Milwaukee's guard room was crowded even before re-signing Gary Trent Jr. to a wild contract, but the Bucks don’t have many wings who are both part of their projected young core and ready to play a real role next season.

Bucks now back to 17 regular contracts with Trent and with the salary committed to him basically force themselves to trade a guard if not two. There’s not enough minutes for the guards on the team. Silly own goal agent favor for a team no free real agent will sign with for years
— Ti Windisch (@TiWindisch) July 11, 2026

Watson fits that criteria. The 6’8” forward turns 24 years old in September and is fresh off a career season in which he averaged 14.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game – all career-best marks. Watson also had his best shooting season since his brief rookie year, making 41.1% of his threes across 54 games. He’s a tough-nosed defender who took on elite matchups for Denver on that side of the floor.

While a player like that is certainly a good target for a team with a young core to build up, Watson’s breakout season does have some flags that hint at a potentially outlier “contract year”. Watson played more games and total minutes the season before in a lesser role, and shot just 35.3% from 3 in 2024-25.

Going further back, his first full-time season (2023-24) in Denver’s rotation was even worse as Watson hit just 29.6% of 152 attempted threes. Watson’s NBA career free throw percentage of 69.7 also hints at a non-elite shooter.

It’s certainly possible that Watson has turned a corner, and his elite 41.1% rate last season did come from the largest number of triples he’s attempted in his career thus far. It’s also possible that Watson will continue to be a somewhat streaky shooter year to year.

The broader idea of the Bucks sign-and-trading for a player like Peyton Watson goes beyond any analysis of his specific skillset. Even if the shooting is legit and Watson continues to make modest strides in his game, we’re talking about an elite role player. What kind of price should the Bucks, ostensibly a rebuilding team fresh off losing a franchise player, be willing to pay to add a role player of any caliber at this stage?

Watson is reportedly looking for $25 million average annual value on his next deal. That is pricey but not absurd to give a young, versatile two-way player. If Watson inked a deal to make $25 million next season he wouldn’t be a top 70 paid player in the NBA.

As long as the shooting stayed relatively consistent, that’d be good value for a wing of Watson’s caliber. If the shooting falls apart, though, Watson’s next deal could quickly resemble a better version of the massive extension Denver handed Christian Braun that got them into this cap mess in the first place.

Stop me if this sounds familiar. Braun requested (and signed) a new deal paying him $25 million annually after averaging roughly 15 points and five rebounds per game and shooting 39% from 3 as a starter. Due to a combination of injuries and regression, Braun’s scoring and shooting numbers dropped across the board and his contract is seen as completely underwater after he shot 30.1% from three last season.

While I believe more in Watson as a true difference-maker than Braun, there is always inherent risk in a nine-figure contract for a player with one truly good NBA season to date.

Mar 25, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Peyton Watson (8) reacts after a play in the fourth quarter against the Dallas Mavericks at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Not an easy deal

To further complicate the situation, the Bucks don’t have the financial flexibility to offer Watson anything above the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which starts around $15 million. Denver would quickly match the biggest deal Milwaukee could offer Watson, which is why a sign-and-trade is required to pry him away.

Given the risk involved in giving Watson his desired salary, Milwaukee simply cannot afford to give up premium assets in such a transaction. Ryan Rollins, Brayden Burries, and any future first-round picks should be off the board completely. There’s just not enough upside in paying Watson north of $100 million to justify losing out on the potential of either of those young guards, or draft picks that could end up anywhere in this new, bizarre lottery format.

The base year compensation CBA quirks involved in sign-and-trade deals such as this, where one player receives a large year-over-year salary increase, make it tricky to nail the mechanics of a specific deal.

But if the Bucks were able to package players like Kevin Porter Jr. and A.J. Green, both of whom feel somewhat squeezed out of minutes in the crowded guard room, that would make sense from a Bucks perspective to better balance the roster.

Would Denver find it appealing to lose out on Watson but add a pair of rotation caliber players for roughly $10 million cheaper than his requested contract? The answer to that question is likely what will determine whether Peyton Watson ends up a Milwaukee Buck.

If the Nuggets are interested in adding lower salaried and useful role players, Milwaukee has an offer that makes sense for both sides. But the Bucks shouldn’t send premium assets for the opportunity to pay Watson a hefty contract.

Add us as a preferred source on Google