Predicting Who the Boston Celtics Second-Leading Scorer Will Be Next Season

We can get this out of the way pretty quickly: Jayson Tatum will be the Boston Celtics’ leading scorer this season.

I know. I know. This bold prediction has floored you and you need a minute to process this. I’ll just be here playing on my phone until the shock has worn off.

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Okay, now that we’re back, we can get to the business of figuring out who will be second. Whittling down that field shouldn’t be too difficult, either. The young wing crew of Baylor Scheierman, Hugo Gonzalez, Jordan Walsh, and Ron Harper Jr. will be important, and Boston will need two of them to be contributors, but I doubt any of them is averaging anything too deep into double digits.

Boston’s centers will score, but they’ll split that total. Maybe the combined centers average 25 a game, but that could be 15 points per game for Neemias Queta and 10 for Mitchell Robinson.

Boston’s second-leading scorer will very likely come from one of three places, depending on how we classify the scoring: Paul George, Derrick White, and Payton Pritchard.

There will be a world where George is Boston’s second-leading scorer in terms of points per game. He averaged 17.3 points per game for the Philadelphia 76ers last season, which is more than Pritchard or White averaged for the Celtics. Obviously, he did that over just 37 games, and there's no expectation for him to play more than maybe 45 or 50 for Boston, so he won’t be as prone to extended cold streaks as White or Pritchard, who play nearly 80 games.

George is 36, which is older but not ancient. He shot better than White or Pritchard from three last season, and he’s still very good in the long mid-range. For a guy who isn’t going to get to the rim the way he used to, it’s a useful way to still contribute to the scoring.

George averaged .45 shots per minute played last season. If his overall minutes land somewhere between 25-30 … let’s just say 27 to split the difference …then George should get 12 shots per game. His twos and threes were split pretty evenly. If he hits 38% from three and 49% from two (his averages in Philadelphia), then he’ll average about 13 points on his field goals. Toss in a couple of free throws and I’m setting Georges per game scoring average next season at about 15 or so.

The Celtics average about 90 shots per game under Joe Mazzulla, so I’m using that as a baseline here. Maybe they can bump that up a little, but the league leader last season was the Miami Heat at 93, so even great rebounding, running, and turnover prevention won’t make a material difference.

Tatum has averaged about 20 shots per game since becoming an all-star, so let’s put him down for that. If George is getting 12, then that leaves 68 for everyone else.

Let’s go to the other end of the spectrum. Sam Hauser has been good for seven a game. Queta averged 6.6 last season. We can argue he deserves more, but let’s put him down for eight this season. Mitchell Robinson should be good for a few lobs and a couple of putbacks, so he’ll get five, which is his career average.

That brings us down to 48 shots left with five guys accounted for. Nine or 10 guys usually play in a game. Baylor Scheierman should get some good run, so we can give him a few shots. He averaged 4.3 last season, so a slight increase due to an increased role seems good. I’ll give him six.

There will be two or three more players who get a couple of shots per game, which gets us to approximately 36 shots left.

I don’t think White and Pritchard will get 18 shots apiece, but I do think we see that they are in line to get an even split. White’s 14.4 attempts last season was a career high, as was Pritchard’s 13.8. I’m going to say the rounding I did with all these calculations artificially inflated their numbers, so I’m bumping them down to 17 shots each. I think that's fair.

Now it comes down to percentages.

Aside from the 2024-25 season White has taken about 42% of his shots from two and 58% of his shots from three. I do expect White to get more catch-and-shoot looks this season, which will bump up his three-point percentage from last season, and I think the more consistent center play will help his two-point percentage. If we go back past last season and apply that moving forward, I’d expect something around 55% from two and 38% from three.

Pritchard’s two point shots shot up last season, to 48.5% of his shot diet. The real question is whether that's his new normal or a function of the situation. Considering that he mentioned on a few different occasions last season that he wanted to scale back on the three-point volume because he was settling, I’m going to assume that percentage isn’t an outlier. At the same time, I’m still not sure if he’ll start or come off the bench, and that will impact the shots he’s taking.

If he comes off the bench, I expect him to drive more and keep his two/three split closer to what it was last season. If he starts, he’ll do a lot more catching and shooting, so the two-pointers will drop.

I can’t shake Mazzulla’s philosophy of splitting up the two primary ball-handlers last season, so I’m going to say Pritchard sticks as sixth man. Playing with Tatum will increase his three-point diet, so I’m going to guess at the split and say it’s 45% twos and 55% threes. He shot 56% on twos last season and 37.7% from three. Let’s say he shoots a little bit better and gets back up to 38.5% with his twos settling where they were last season.

White gets to the line a little more than Pritchard, so unless Pritchard can find some success foul-hunting, I’m going to give White that extra point.

Totalling up the math, White would score seven points inside the arc, 11 points from three, and 2.5 from the line, giving him 20.5 points per game.

Pritchard would score 8.5 points on twos, 11 on threes, and 1.5 from the line, giving him 21 points per game.

It would be incredible for the Celtics to have three guys averaging 20-plus per game, which last happened during their championship season. There's a good chance I’m over-estimating here, so I’m not going to actually predict it. But wherever they land, Pritchard and White will probably be pretty close in production, with Pritchard getting a chance to do a little bit more in a bench role.

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