Can the Clippers Actually "Shock a Lot of People" Like Darius Garland Claims?

The first week of training camp always brings out the most optimistic, hopeful takes. Everyone is happy to be back in the building seeing familiar faces and excited to meet the newcomers. Team chemistry and vibes are usually excellent, which can lead to high expectations.

Considering how competitive these players are, this is understandable. Of course they are going to set a high bar for themselves and believe that they can be better than many people think. For example, let's take what Darius Garland said earlier in the week.

Garland said, "I think we’re gonna shock a lot of people. I think our season is gonna be surprising to a lot of people. We have really good chemistry so far, and we haven’t even hit the season yet," per Clippers insider Joey Linn.

The former All-Star guard then added, "We got a lot of competitors, we got a lot of dogs on this team that can really go. With the brains of Ty Lue and our coaching staff, I think they’re gonna take us over the top. It’s super exciting."

But what are the chances that the Clippers can actually be one of the surprise teams of the season?

First, it's important to establish what would qualify as "shocking" a lot of people. The Clippers aren't expected to make the playoffs. Their over/under win total in most sportsbooks ranges from 27.5 to 30.5. They are generally ranked in the bottom four of the Western Conference, along with the Pelicans, Grizzlies, and the Kings.

So, exceeding expectations would mean something along the lines of finishing as the tenth seed and landing a Play-In spot.

It's not crazy to think that the Clippers could finish above five of the Kings, Grizzlies, Pelicans, Mavericks, Jazz, Warriors, and Suns. While this is possible, it's not probable.

How Can the Clippers Exceed Expectations?

First of all, the injury luck has to be on the Clippers' side. The two best players on the team, Garland and Ingram, have dealt with serious injuries over the past two years. Garland missed almost half of last season as he was recovering from an offseason toe injury and Ingram will miss the start of the season coming back from a heel and Achilles surgery.

Plus, there are injuries to Bradley Beal, Yanic Konan Niederhauser, and Jordan Miller at the start of the season. It's hard to expect Beal to stay healthy for an entire season, and Miller will be sidelined for months.

This team has decent depth on the perimeter, but the frontcourt is another question. Ty Lue just hinted that Isaiah Jackson may get the start at center. Brook Lopez is the only other healthy center on the roster until Konan Niederhauser returns. The Lopez-Jackson duo is arguably the worst center rotation in the entire NBA.

In a league that is becoming increasingly bigger and more physical, that will be a serious problem. It's not like the Clippers have decent size and physicality in other positions. Chances are they will be overwhelmed physically and outrebounded on most nights.

Size, Physicality, and Defense Will Be Serious Problems

It's difficult to imagine the Clippers having an average defense. Besides Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr., there are simply not enough good defenders on the roster, and there is only so much two rotation players can do defensively.

Offensively, however, there is plenty of talent on this team. The Clippers can put out lineups that have a ton of shooting and shot creation. With Garland, Ingram, Max Strus, Hachimura, and Brook Lopez, the Clippers can have five-out spacing, which could help them punch above their weight.

But this team will be overly reliant on Garland. There is no one on the team who can replicate his combination of shooting, scoring, passing, and pick-and-roll ability. It will surely be a struggle in games where Garland isn't available.

One advantage the Clippers have is coaching. Ty Lue is a proven coach who has a long track record of winning and exceeding expectations. He could certainly get the most out of this group despite their shortcomings.

There are ways that the Clippers can exceed expectations and be closer to a .500 team. But a lot of things have to go right. In any realistic scenario, this team doesn't have enough frontcourt quality and depth. The defense is unlikely to be good enough to be a dangerous team.

Plus, injuries and availability will be a serious concern. There is probably even more of a downside risk than there is upside.

Could this team exceed expectations and win 35 games? Sure. But as currently constructed, it's very difficult to see how they could win many more than that and shock the world.

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