What awaits the Memphis Grizzlies as an uncertain offseason begins

The Memphis Grizzlies regular season has finally, mercifully, ended. They completed the final quarter of the regular season on a pace that rivals the absolute worst teams in NBA history, culminating in a weekend that featured arguably the greatest act of tanking the NBA has ever seen. Wherever the Grizzlies land in the NBA Draft Lottery next month, they will have earned the selection they receive one way or another.

But of course,, the bouncing lottery balls will make that determination - and that aspect of the upcoming offseason is beyond Memphis' control. It will, however, set the tone for whatever comes next for the Grizzlies.

It will be a busy next few months for the franchise. But here are the three biggest dominoes for Memphis that need to fall the "right" way for the Grizzlies tank job this season to not linger too far beyond this campaign.

It's the Lottery Balls, Stupid

Unfortunately for those that care most about the product on the court, the most significant piece of the immediate future of the Memphis Grizzlies is off the court with the NBA Draft Lottery. Where Memphis falls will directly influence what the Grizzlies look ahead to as they build the next era of Memphis basketball.

If the Grizzlies land in the top-3? Most analysts agree that you can't go too wrong. There are flaws among all of the three best prospects in the 2026 NBA Draft - AJ Dybansta of BYU,, Darryn Peterson of Kansas, or Cameron Boozer of Duke - but these athletes have displayed various examples of superstar play. Any of these names landing in Memphis would make the "tank" worthwhile, and the Grizzlies have a roughly 25% chance of this happening.

However, it's also posssible (a larger amount of probability) that the Grizzlies fall outside the top-4, around pick 6, 7, or 8. In this case, while there may still be a star in this loaded Lottery - Darius Acuff Jr., Keaton Wagler, etc. - the success of the pick is more in question. It is important to remember that Memphis also still has another 1st in this draft, which the Grizzlies could use to actually select a player or try trade up in this draft

Add that alongside the fact that Memphis has the #32 pick in this draft as well (the Grizzlies have taken Jaylen Wells, Cam Spencer, Javon Small, and Jahmai Mashack in recent 2nd rounds) and Memphis has arguably the best slate of draft capital in the 2026 NBA Draft. But it all starts at the top. The Grizzlies desperately hope to get lucky.

Ja Morant's Memphis future very much in doubt

It's no secret that a major rift exists between the Grizzlies and Ja Morant, their much maligned superstar. Ja had an awful 2025-2026 season, and while Memphis explored potentially trading the multi-time All-Star at the deadline the reports of "negative value" at the very least were somewhat confirmed when Morant stuck around despite other faces of his "Era" - Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. - being traded earlier in the year/season.

Now, months removed from the decision to keep Ja around, the same questions about Ja's future remain. It's hard to imagine that his value has improved much. But lucky for Memphis, the offseason brings increased roster flexibility. It's easier for the Grizzlies to find a team willing to talk themselves in to trying to give Morant a fresh start in a new city.

Milwaukee just let Doc Rivers walk. We know that the Bucks were interested in Ja around the trade deadline. If rumors of Taylor Jenkins, the former Memphis Grizzlies head coach when Morant was drafted, returning to coaching in Milwaukee come true? Perhaps a reunion makes sense, and could save the Bucks' relationship with Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Miami Heat could also be an option depending on what happens with Giannis.

Is it possible that Morant stays in Memphis? Sure - Ja is under contract with the Grizzlies the next two seasons. But the writing is on the wall. It's time to turn the page. It can't be about "best offer" anymore. Starting a new era with possibly three rookies while Morant is still on the roster is not a logical choice.

Could we emotionally hope that it works out? Of course. But sadly, life isn't a movie. The reality is the relationship is likely over.

Zach Edey must get/stay healthy

Do you want the good news or the bad news?

Good news - Zach Edey was one of the most dominant forces in the entire NBA this season when he played. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Grizzlies were 27.5 points better per 100 possessions when Edey was on the floor.

The bad news? Edey played only 283 minutes this season as he dealt with injuries, most notably one to his leg that cost him a massive chuck of his second NBA season.

If you're worried about a 7'4", 290 pound big having multiple leg injuries before turning 24, you're not alone. Visions of Yao Ming and others dance across the nightmares of Memphis Grizzlies fans everywhere. But part of the way the injury was handled in this lost season was trying to make sure this stress reaction in the leg healed properly, before it became a bigger issue.

Will this decision work out? Hopefully. Because the fastest path to the Grizzlies being relevant in the Western Conference again goes through the impact Edey makes on both ends of the floor. We live in Victor Wembanyama's NBA now. And while Wemby and Edey are very different players, Edey is one of the few players in the league who can match his physical presence. While opposing teams may believe they can attack Edey's weaknesses, make no mistake - the numbers and your eyes (in a small sample size) say Edey is an unstoppable force in his own right.

Building around Edey, then, makes sense - if you have him on the court consistently. Monitoring his progress over the Summer ahead matters immensely, and what the Grizzlies do around him (draft a guard, reserve big, etc.) will say a lot about how Memphis GM Zach Kleiman and the Grizzlies front office sees Edey moving forward.

There is so much more to watch for with the Grizzlies as the offseason begins. But these three storylines will drive the conversation between now and opening night.