An Unsigned Dyson Daniels Is Bad For Both Sides

Even though the 2024-25 season didn't end on a high note for the Atlanta Hawks, the emergence of Dyson Daniels was one of the best subplots of the season.

His emergence made the decision to send Dejounte Murray to the New Orleans Pelicans look like a genius move. The Hawks got a cheaper replacement for Murray that actually fit next to Trae Young in a way that Murray never really did. However, describing him as a replacement doesn't do justice to his breakout year.

Daniels averaged career-highs across the board with his increased role - he averaged 14.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 4.4 APG, and 3.0 steals per game. However, the real story was his excellent defense. Daniels led the NBA in steals with 202, earned an All-Defense First Team nod, won NBA Most Improved Player and put his name firmly into the conversation as one of the five best perimeter defenders in the NBA. As a result, he's hoping to cash in on his breakout year.

The Hawks already have Daniels under contract for 2025-26 due to the $7.7 million team option he has in the final year of his contract. However, he'll be a restricted free agent (RFA) next summer. That means the Hawks have the right to match any offers he receives from other teams in the summer before the 2026-27 season. The situation is similar to what Jonathan Kuminga and Quentin Grimes went through this summer for the Golden State Warriors and Philadelphia 76ers, respectively.

To avoid the scenario where Dyson enters restricted free agency, the Hawks have until October 20th to agree to an extension with Daniels. NBA insider Jake Fischer had this to say about how the negotiations are going.

"There’s currently some distance between Dyson Daniels and the Hawks during the early phase of contract negotiations."

This isn't something to worry about at the moment. Closing the distance is always part of contract negotiations. The context behind the distance matters more. Per Fischer, Daniels is expected to get an offer sheet in the $30 million-per-season range. He’s expected to be a highly sought-after restricted free agent next summer if negotiations were to reach that point, despite the possibility of another tight market for RFAs in 2026.

However, letting the situation play out until the 2026 summer would be a failure on both sides. Extending Daniels early is a rare example of a decision that has major benefits for both the team and player.

Why It Makes Sense For the Hawks

Since 2011-12, the NBA Most Improved Player award has been a fairly good predictor of NBA stardom. Orlando Magic forward Ryan Anderson was a good role player when he won the award that year, averaging a then career-best 16.1 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. He never really progressed beyond that, but he had an 11-year NBA career as a role player and undeniably succeded after being a late lottery pick in the 2008 draft.

After him, the list is a straight run of All-Stars and All-NBA talents. Outside of Goran Dragic and Victor Oladipo, all of the last 12 MIP award winners (excluding Daniels) are still in the NBA. The high-end outcomes include All-NBA First Team talents like Paul George (2012-13), Jimmy Butler (2013-14) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (2016-17). It would be a home run for the Hawks if Daniels hit that ceiling while on a contract in the range of $30 million per year.

However, the middle or even lower-tier outcomes would still be great for the Hawks. Ja Morant, Julius Randle, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Maxey and Oladipo have earned selections on All-NBA and All-Star teams. Even if Daniels doesn't reach those heights, getting to the level of players like Brandon Ingram and Lauri Markkannen would still make him worthy of a long-term deal that has an annual salary of $25-27 million per year.

It can also be argued that Daniels isn't close to his ceiling yet. At just 22 years old, he should be able to grow even more as a shooter. He shot a passable 34% from deep last season on 3.1 attempts per game, but most of those attempts were wide open. Daniels is a career 61.4% shooter from the line, so he doesn't have especially strong indicators as a shooter. However, it isn't uncommon for defensively-tilted guards to improve their shooting over time. Lonzo Ball is a great example of this - he shot under 46% from the line and 35% from deep for his first two seasons. By Year 3, he'd turned himself into a legitimate floor spacer that connected on 37.5% of his threes while taking 6.3 of them per game. Just like Daniels, Ball was 22 years old when he made the leap as a shooter.

On defense, his sense of timing and positioning on that end is rare. He's very aggressive and there will be times where he gets punished for that, but that's something the Hawks can live with due to how much pressure he puts on opposing ball-handlers. There just aren't many players who have his combination of athleticism and defensive intelligence.

If the Hawks pay Daniels a contract close to his asking price (slightly under $30 mil a year with a team/player option in the last year), it'd be right in line with his breakout season and expected trajectory. They'd also be locking up a member of their young core on a cost-controlled deal that could give them a cap discount if he takes a leap. The Hawks have about $41 million coming off the books next offseason due to Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Kennard both being on expiring deals. They have the space to make it happen - it's just a matter of getting down to the right number.

Why It Makes Sense for Dyson Daniels

Before coming to the Hawks, Daniels was a role player for the Pelicans. He didn't have enough spacing to be viable on offense, which held him back from playing enough minutes to make his impact on defense. That severely limits his value as a player. While he did a ton to help the Hawks last season, it can't be understated how much he beneffited by playing off of Trae Young's gravity.

If he made it to the restricted free agent market, there are very few teams that have cap space and would be able to provide a similar offensive ecosystem. The main players in free agency next summer are expected to be the Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls, Detroit Pistons, Los Angeles Lakers and Washington Wizards. The Lakers would be an excellent destination for Daniels if they moved on from Austin Reaves, but he'd have to play as more of a small forward if they kept Reaves. Cade Cunningham is a great player, but he doesn't quite have the gravity that a playmaker like Young demands and the Pistons don't have a lot of spacing. The Bulls, Nets and Wizards would be terrible fits for Daniels because they don't have any established primary options that can make him viable on offense. The Hornets might be an interesting destination if LaMelo Ball stays healthy, but their roster has always struggled with injuries.

If Daniels values getting paid and going to a team that fits him, it makes the most sense to stay in Atlanta for as long as they are tied to Trae Young. From a basketball standpoint, there is some benefit to him waiting to sign and seeing if Young and the Hawks ink a new deal next offseason. Still, Daniels has a chance to lock in his earnings right now. There's a small chance he could sign for an additional $5-10 million per year next summer if he has an All-Star caliber campaign. However, he'd be taking a major risk because he isn't the healthiest player. Daniels has missed 20+ games for each of his first two seasons before playing in a career-best 76 games this past year. It makes sense to lock in future earnings right now on a three or four year deal so that he can ensure future earnings regardless of factors beyond his control. If he wants to preserve some flexibility, the Hawks would likely be amenable to a player option on the last year of the deal because it gives them an out in case the deal is bad.

Clearly, there's a strong incentive from both sides to get this done and that type of motivation has worked out in the past. The Hawks got a deal done with Jalen Johnson last year right before the deadline. They should be similarly proactive about locking Daniels up as he enters his prime, hopefully as a member of a championship contender in Atlanta.

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