Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat: Spread & Over/Under Predictions For Tonight's Play-In Game

It is win or go home for the Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat tonight at State Farm Arena. In the final play-in game in the Eastern Conference, the two Southeast Division rivals will square off for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and a first round matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

This is going to be the fifth matchup of the season between the Hawks and the Heat. Three of the four matchups have taken place since the Heat made the move to trade Jimmy Butler and the Heat are 2-1 in those games. Will this game be any different?

When the Hawks were fully healthy with Jalen Johnson, Larry Nance, and Clint Capela, their defense, while not elite, was pretty good. Without these guys, it has been tough for the Hawks to defend. While the Hawks did have arguably their best defensive performance vs this Heat team on February 24th, holding Miami to 86 points and 17.5% from three. The last two matchups are a completely different story.

Just two days after holding the Heat to 86 points, Miami scored 131 points and shot 55% from three. The third quarter of that game saw the Heat score 42 points and pull away from the Hawks. In their most recent matchup on March 27th, Miami scored 122 points and shot 55% from three, with Tyler Herro scoring 36 points.

One thing about the most recent matchup was that the Hawks started Vit Krejci in place of Mouhamed Gueye, who ended up not playing in the game. I don't expect that to happen again, as Gueye has been a pretty solid defender for the Hawks.

Miami is not one of the better offensive teams in the NBA, but they showed in the final two games against the Hawks and in last night's game vs the Bulls, they can take advantage of poor defense. Atlanta has to be better on that end or their season will be over.

Shutting down Tyler Herro does not guarantee a Hawks win, but it would help. Last night against Chicago, Herro scored 38 points and he has had a fantastic season. In the Hawks victory over Miami on February 24th, Herro was 4-19 from the field and 0-9 from three, scoring 11 points. It is no secret that Dyson Daniels is going to be guarding Herro on Friday night and he and the rest of the Hawks defense will need to limit his effectiveness.

Feb 26, 2025; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro (14) takes a shot over Atlanta Hawks guard Dyson Daniels (5) and forward Georges Niang (20) in the first half at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-Imagn Images / Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

Heat PG Tyler Herr — Feb 26, 2025; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro (14) drives past Atlanta Hawks forward Mouhamed Gueye (18) in the first half at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-Imagn Images | Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

On Tuesday night vs Orlando, the Hawks supporting cast could not have been any worse.

Zacccharie Risacher was 2-10 from the field and scored seven points. Onyeka Okongwu had 11 points and nine rebounds, and Dyson Daniels scored seven points. Caris LeVert had seven points on 3-11 shooting. Georges Niang had 15 points, and Dominick Barlow, Terance Mann, and Vit Krejci combined for eight points. The Orlando bench outscored the Hawks' bench 57-30.

How does the rotation look tomorrow? If not for foul trouble for Onyeka Okongwu, Barlow likely does not play and I don't think Snyder wanted to play Krejci. Will it just be LeVert, Niang, and Mann tomorrow night? Those three guys, plus Risacher, have to have better games. Atlanta must also limit Miami's role players. Duncan Robinson, Davion Mitchell, and Haywood Highsmith have had impact games against Atlanta this year and those are going to be the main guys Atlanta will see tomorrow along with the Heat's regular starters.

Odds

According to Fanduel Sportsbook, the Hawks are 1 point favorites against the Heat tonight and the total is set at 220.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Prediction

It is do or die for the Hawks tonight. While you can certainly make the argument (I have) that this is a successful season for the Hawks whether they get into the playoffs or not, they would still love to win this game. Miami played well on Wednesday and in the last two matchups, they have not had any problems with the Hawks. Atlanta is going to need a strong Trae Young game, his supporting cast must be better, and Quin Snyder must make better rotation decisions tonight (like not playing Dom Barlow and Georges Niang together) for the Hawks to get the win. This is a true tossup game, but I will give the edge to the Hawks for being at home.

Final Score: Hawks 114, Heat 108 (ATL -1 and Over)

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