Atlanta Hawks vs Portland Trail Blazers: Spread & Over/Under Predictions For Tonight's Game

Tonight, the Atlanta Hawks are looking to defeat the Portland Trail Blazers and win their 37th game of the season, which would exceed their 36-win total from last season. Atlanta comes into tonight's game in 7th place in the Eastern Conference standings and is looking to hold their ground against a Blazers team who will be without some significant contributors. Robert Williams, Scoot Henderson, and Deandre Ayton have already been ruled out, Jerami Grant is doubtful, and Anfernee Simons is questionable. This is a game that the Hawks need to win to stay at 7th and keep their faint hopes alive that they can catch Milwaukee for 6th.

Our own Rohan Raman gave an in-depth preview for the game tonight:

"Coming into tonight's game, the Hawks are 5th in the NBA in PPG, 14th in FG%, 15th in 3PA, 18th in 3P%, 3rd in FTA, 26th in turnovers, and 13th in rebounding. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 16th in points per 100 possessions, 17th in effective field goal percentage, 21st in turnover percentage, 12th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 9th in free throw rate.

Currently, the Hawks rank 27th in PPG allowed, 29th in field goal percentage allowed, 14th in three-point attempts allowed, and 28th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 17th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 28th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

The Blazers create tons of second-chance points, but don't excel at much else. They're 22nd in points per game, 25th in FG%, 12th in 3PA, 25th in 3P%, 13th in FTA, 29th in turnovers, and 15th in rebounding. Per Cleaning the Glass, Portland is 23rd in points per 100 possessions, 23rd in effective field goal percentage, 29th in turnover percentage, 3rd in offensive rebounding percentage, and 20th in free throw rate.

Portland has a relatively middling defense, but they are somewhat stronger on the perimeter. They are 16th in PPG allowed, 23rd in field goal percentage allowed, 3rd in three-point attempts allowed, and 21st in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Portland is 18th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 19th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Although Portland is only 15th in rebounds per game, they've been 10th in that same category since the trade deadline and the advanced metrics says they are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in basketball. That's largely due to Blazers big man Donovan Clingan. He is averaging a staggering 14.2 rebounds per 36 minutes and 5.8 offensive rebounds per 36 minutes. For some reference, that mark would lead the NBA this year. At 7'2, he's also a formidable defensive anchor in the paint. He has a block percentage of 7.9%, which would lead the NBA if he was eligible. He's played behind DeAndre Ayton for most of the season, but he'll get a bigger opportunity tonight because Ayton is out. Okongwu is going to have his work cut out for him when trying to battle Clingan on the boards and score over him in the paint. He isn't the smoothest defender in space, which is a possible area for fast wings like Risacher and Daniels to exploit.

It isn't just Clingan on defense either. Originally a throw-away in the deal that sent Jusuf Nurkic to the Suns, Toumani Camara has blossomed into an excellent player since arriving in Portland. He's a formidable isolation defender who can match up with anyone from Young to Nikola Jokic. Furthermore, he's been a better player on offense as of late. In his last 10 games, he's averaging 14.1 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.0 steals on 49/41/50% shooting splits. Since the All-Star break, he's shooting 41.5% from deep on 5.6 attempts per game. I'd expect him to match up against Young, Risacher and Niang tonight as the Blazers attempt to shut down the Hawks' three-point shooting.

Young is coming off one of his best playmaking games of the season, dishing out 19 assists to only two turnovers. He'll have to be careful with the ball against a Portland team that has tons of length and athleticism to close off passing lanes. Even though he's always killed the Blazers throughout his career, averaging 31 points and 10.7 assists in his games against Portland, Young had six turnovers the last time the Hawks squared off with Portland. It was a narrow 114-110 win for Portland, so those turnovers made a difference in the ultimate result.

Although some regression is to be expected from his stellar performance against the Bucks, I think this is a very interesting matchup to track for Zaccharie Risacher. He'll likely draw Camara, Deni Avdija and Shaedon Sharpe as defensive matchups during the game. Those are all players who can keep up with Risacher, so out-running a old Bucks team and showing a quick trigger may not be as effective against the Blazers.

For the Hawks defense, it is very encouraging to see that the Blazers are prone to turnovers. They're the second-worst team in the NBA when it comes to turnovers and that's largely a function of their ball-handlers not having the tightest handles. That's great news for Dyson Daniels, who has continued to make a case for DPOY. He racked up five steals in the Bucks game and will likely have a chance to keep that going against the Blazers."

Odds

According to Fanduel Sportsbook, the Hawks are 5 point favorites against the Blazers tonight and the total is set at 237.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Prediction

Even without some of their main guys, Portland can win this game. Shaedon Sharpe and Avdija have the potential to score at a high enough level, but they also have defense with Camara, who is one of the most underrated defenders in the NBA and gave Trae Young plenty of trouble last time. Atlanta has more at stake in this game, their offense is playing at a high-level and I think that will give them the edge in this game.

Final Score: Hawks 120, Blazers 115 (POR +5 and Under)

Additional Links

Hawks vs Blazers: Game Preview, Injury Report, Projected Starting Lineups For Tonight's Game

Three Big Takeaways From Atlanta's 145-124 Win Over Milwaukee

DPOY? Hawks Guard Dyson Daniels Continues to Make His Case By Setting the Hawks Single-Season Steals Record