Hawks vs. Knicks Game 4: Preview, Injury Report, Projected Starting Lineups for Today's Matchup

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It's no hyperbole - tonight is the biggest game the Hawks have played since Game 6 of the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals.
Atlanta could still lose this game and theoretically win the series. The New York Knicks have shown they're beatable on both ends of the court and the Hawks have proved it by taking a 2-1 lead in the series thus far after many people (myself included) doubted their ability to win more than one game in the matchup.
However, the momentum switches to New York's side if they're able to pull off a road win to stave off a 3-1 lead for the Hawks. A 3-1 lead isn't entirely insurmountable, but it's essentially curtains for the Knicks if Atlanta is able to pull off a win tonight.
So, what needs to happen for Atlanta to take Game 4 tonight?
By the Numbers

The sample size is still rather small and CJ McCollum's scorching-hot run through the first round is boosting their numbers. Still, Atlanta's offense actually has not been as impressive as one would expect. They are 9th in points, 6th in FG%, 6th in 3P%, 13th in FT%, 13th in rebounds (13th in OREB, 9th in DREB), 10th in assists, and 7th in turnovers per game. They're 8th in offensive rating so far.
The defense has been a problem at times for the Hawks, but they held the Knicks to 32.4% shooting from deep in Game 2 and 28.6% from deep in Game 3. They are 11th in points allowed, 9th in FG% allowed, 10th in 3P% allowed, 12th in rebounds allowed, 8th in steals, and 4th in blocks. They're 7th in defensive rating thus far.
New York's offense was great in the regular season, but it's devolved into Jalen Brunson iso ball down the stretch. They are still 6th in points, 8th in FG%, 7th in 3P%, 4th in FT%, 4th in rebounds (10th in OREB, 4th in DREB), 13th in assists, and 8th in turnovers per game. They're 6th in offensive rating in the playoffs.
The Knicks' defense has been better even if it has questions of its own. They've held Atlanta under 110 points in every game of the series, which should be enough to win. However, the liabilities that Brunson, Josh Hart and Karl-Anthony Towns pose on that end of the floor are becoming tough to overcome. They are 7th in points allowed, 10th in FG% allowed, 11th in 3P% allowed, 5th in rebounds allowed, 10th in steals, and 10th in blocks. They're 7th in defensive rating thus far.
Takeaways From Game 3

One of Atlanta's biggest advantages has been the ability to throw Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker on Brunson so that he has no one to switch onto. They did a great job on him in Game 3, holding him to 26 points on 23 shots while going 0-5 from deep with three turnovers. It's advantageous for the Hawks as long as the offense runs through Brunson for most of the game and they have to hope Knicks coach Mike Brown can't figure out how to run the offense through Towns.
Brown's experimentation with zero-center lineups has also been a baffling tactic to watch considering that the Hawks are working at a size deficit. It's strange to see Towns phased out of the offense down the stretch considering that he's arguably been the Knicks' most efficient player through the series. Considering the stakes, it's difficult to see Brown trying those lineups for notable -or any - minutes again.
New York's role players haven't really made much of an impact on the series, but Deuce McBride and OG Anunoby both played very well in Game 3. McBride has been particularly quiet, but he torched the Hawks from deep by hitting five of his ten three-point attempts. OG's shooting has been there throughout the postseason, but he's usually known for his defense and found himself sinking four threes. The offense desperately needs something beyond Brunson iso ball and strong form from the Knicks' supporting cast might be coming at the right time.
What To Expect in Game 4

Even though his relationship with Jalen Brunson seems excellent, the Knicks are just a worse offense when Josh Hart's on the floor. They've had a 111.9 offensive rating in his 108 minutes of action in the postseason, which rises to 120 when he hits the bench. However, they have an elite defensive rating of 103.6 in his minutes that balloons up to a dreadful 132.2 in the 32 minutes he's been on the bench. It's a small sample size, but playing 40 minutes and only scoring two points on nine shots has to be met with some sort of decision in the starting lineup. I wonder if they would explore starting the game with Deuce McBride in Hart's place due to McBride's strong minutes in Game 3.
The lineup data also shows that the Brunson/KAT duo needs to be on the floor at practically all times. They have a 12.3 net rating as a duo, but a -18.5 net rating with both off and a -35 net rating with Towns off the floor. Even though Towns can be inconsistent, the Knicks have no choice but to play through him and challenge Atlanta to matchup with him. In order to counter that, Atlanta should throw a mixture of Dyson Daniels, Jonathan Kuminga and Onyeka Okongwu at KAT on defense to force turnovers.
By this point, it seems clear that the double-big lineup of KAT and Mitchell Robinson just doesn't play well.
Projected Starting Lineups
Hawks:
G- Nickeil Alexander-Walker
G- CJ McCollum
F- Dyson Daniels
F- Jalen Johnson
C- Onyeka Okongwu
Knicks:
G- Jalen Brunson
G- Josh Hart
F- OG Anunoby
F- Mikal Bridges
C- Karl-Anthony Towns
Injury Report
Jock Landale is out for the Hawks while the Knicks injury report is clean.

Rohan Raman has been covering the Atlanta Hawks for On SI since June 2024. He has been a contributor to Georgia Tech Athletics for On SI since May 2022 and enjoys providing thoughtful analysis of football, basketball and baseball at the collegiate and professional level.