Analyst Points To Two Key Stats That Could Determine Success For The Hawks This Season

Jan 18, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson (1) attempts a basket against the Boston Celtics during the third quarter at the TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Hawks are hoping to become contenders this season, and with the offseason acquisitions of Kristaps Porzingis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Luke Kennard, they are closer to the top of the East than they have been since they made the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021. However, the return of young star Jalen Johnson might be the most important addition to this team this season.

Johnson was on the verge of potentially making the All-Star team last season before suffering a season ending shoulder injury that derailed what looked like a promising season for Atlanta.

Is Johnson the key to the Hawks success this season?

Jan 22, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson (1) dribbles past Detroit Pistons forward Tobias Harris (12) during the second half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

In a recent article from ESPN's Zach Kram, he pointed out how Johnson's return and two other key stats could shape the Hawks season:

"There are plenty of reasons for Hawks optimism this season, from Dyson Daniels' Most Improved Player breakout to the best offseason for any team in the Eastern Conference. But the Hawks' chances for another conference finals run, half a decade after their surprise trip in 2021, might rest on how high Jalen Johnson rises this season. The oft-injured forward played just 36 games this past season, but when he was available, few players did a better job stuffing the stat sheet.

Johnson averaged 10 rebounds and five assists per game this past season, joining Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Domantas Sabonis as the only players to reach those round numbers. Over the past four seasons, the only other player to hit those benchmarks is Joel Embiid. That's not to say Johnson is an MVP contender -- but he could be a lot closer to an All-NBA spot and true stardom than anyone realizes."

Could Johnson become the Hawks Best Player?

Jan 3, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson (1) shoots against Los Angeles Lakers forward Anthony Davis (3) during the first half at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Johnson has made huge strides for the Hawks the past couple of seasons and I think it is possible that he could even surpass Trae Young as the best player on the team sooner than later. Our own Rohan Raman laid out the case in an article this week:

"If Johnson is an elite defender and rebounder (10+ rebounds per game) while being a great passer (6+ assists per game) and good scorer (20+ points per game), he'd have an argument for being the best player on the 2025-26 Hawks due to all-around impact. Trae might still have him beat due to his offensive gravity, but respectfully, there isn't a world where he's more than a neutral presence on defense. The potential for Johnson to be additive on defense is critical for both his future and the Hawks' ceiling next season.

The numbers bear out that Johnson already took a leap from the 2023-24 season to make himself into a solid defender. His secondary rim protection was better - he improved in rim points saved per 100 possessions, averaging 1.1 points saved (85th percentile) up from 0.4 (76th percentile) and opponents shot 7% worse at the rim due to his presence (82nd percentile). He also upped his steal numbers to 2 per game (82nd percentile) from 1.7 (72nd percentile). However, the biggest growth in his defense was in his efficacy on contesting shots as a perimeter defender last year. Despite his length and athleticism, Johnson actually hasn't been all that effective on closeouts for most of his career. Opponents barely shot worse when Johnson closed out on them - he finished in the 63rd percentile for FG% differential while closing out. That drastically changed in 2024-25. Opposing players shot 3.8% worse from the field when Johnson closed out on them, good for the 91st percentile among all forwards.

Suffice to say, it's ridiculous that Jalen Johnson would barely be considered a top-100 player in the NBA by any metric. He needs to stay healthy and he hasn't reached his potential yet, but there's a slim chance the Hawks have already found a worthy successor to Trae Young's mantle if Young leaves Atlanta next offseason."

If Johnson stays healthy, he could begin to make a case as an All-NBA player and perhaps the best player on the Hawks.